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| analysis of black swan: Black Swan Green David Mitchell, 2006-04-11 By the New York Times bestselling author of The Bone Clocks and Cloud Atlas | Longlisted for the Man Booker Prize Selected by Time as One of the Ten Best Books of the Year | A New York Times Notable Book | Named One of the Best Books of the Year by The Washington Post Book World, The Christian Science Monitor, Rocky Mountain News, and Kirkus Reviews | A Los Angeles Times Book Prize Finalist | Winner of the ALA Alex Award | Finalist for the Costa Novel Award From award-winning writer David Mitchell comes a sinewy, meditative novel of boyhood on the cusp of adulthood and the old on the cusp of the new. Black Swan Green tracks a single year in what is, for thirteen-year-old Jason Taylor, the sleepiest village in muddiest Worcestershire in a dying Cold War England, 1982. But the thirteen chapters, each a short story in its own right, create an exquisitely observed world that is anything but sleepy. A world of Kissingeresque realpolitik enacted in boys’ games on a frozen lake; of “nightcreeping” through the summer backyards of strangers; of the tabloid-fueled thrills of the Falklands War and its human toll; of the cruel, luscious Dawn Madden and her power-hungry boyfriend, Ross Wilcox; of a certain Madame Eva van Outryve de Crommelynck, an elderly bohemian emigré who is both more and less than she appears; of Jason’s search to replace his dead grandfather’s irreplaceable smashed watch before the crime is discovered; of first cigarettes, first kisses, first Duran Duran LPs, and first deaths; of Margaret Thatcher’s recession; of Gypsies camping in the woods and the hysteria they inspire; and, even closer to home, of a slow-motion divorce in four seasons. Pointed, funny, profound, left-field, elegiac, and painted with the stuff of life, Black Swan Green is David Mitchell’s subtlest and most effective achievement to date. Praise for Black Swan Green “[David Mitchell has created] one of the most endearing, smart, and funny young narrators ever to rise up from the pages of a novel. . . . The always fresh and brilliant writing will carry readers back to their own childhoods. . . . This enchanting novel makes us remember exactly what it was like.”—The Boston Globe “[David Mitchell is a] prodigiously daring and imaginative young writer. . . . As in the works of Thomas Pynchon and Herman Melville, one feels the roof of the narrative lifted off and oneself in thrall.”—Time |
| analysis of black swan: The Black Swan Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2009-10-13 In the author's point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics - It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'. |
| analysis of black swan: The Black Swan of Paris Karen Robards, 2020-06-30 An exquisite WWII novel illuminating the strength of three women in occupied Paris, for fans of The Nightingale, The Alice Network and The Lost Girls of Paris. A truly outstanding novel...reminds us of the power of love, hope and courage.—Heather Morris, #1 bestselling author of The Tattooist of Auschwitz Paris, 1944 Celebrated singer Genevieve Dumont is both a star and a smokescreen. An unwilling darling of the Nazis, the chanteuse’s position of privilege allows her to go undetected as an ally to the resistance. When her estranged mother, Lillian de Rocheford, is captured by Nazis, Genevieve knows it won’t be long before the Gestapo succeeds in torturing information out of Lillian that will derail the upcoming allied invasion. The resistance movement is tasked with silencing her by any means necessary—including assassination. But Genevieve refuses to let her mother become yet one more victim of the war. Reuniting with her long-lost sister, she must find a way to navigate the perilous cross-currents of Occupied France undetected—and in time to save Lillian’s life. In this heart-wrenching novel, bestselling author Karen Robards showcases the extraordinary lengths one goes to save their family from a German prison. A web of spies, the resistance and a vivid portrayal of Paris in wartime. |
| analysis of black swan: Winter Season Toni Bentley, 2003-03-20 An irresistible inside look at one of the world's great dance companies, Winter Season is also a sensitive, intimate, and almost painfully honest account of the emotional and intellectual development of a young woman dedicated to one of the most demanding of all the arts. Bentley's association with the New York City Ballet began when she was accepted by the affiliated School of American Ballet at the age of eleven. Seven years later, she became a member of the company. In the fall of 1980, as the winter season opened, she found herself facing an emotional crisis: her dancing was not going well. At 22 she felt that her life had lost direction. To try to make something of her experience, on paper if not on stage, she began to keep a journal, describing her day-to-day activities and looking back on her past. The result is perhaps the closest that most of us will ever come to knowing what it feels like to be a dancer, on stage and off. It also offers memorable glimpses of some notable members of the City ballet, with, at the center, the man whose vision they all served--George Balanchine. |
| analysis of black swan: A Detailed Analysis of Aronofsky’s Black Swan (2010) Through a Semiotic Approach With the Focus on Colour , 2020-10-02 Essay from the year 2020 in the subject Philosophy - Theoretical (Realisation, Science, Logic, Language), ( Middlesex University in London ), course: BA (Hons) in Theatre Dance, language: English, abstract: Colour, a form of non-verbal communication, physically affects the human senses such as taste, touch and smell however, this essay will mainly focus on the relationship between sight and the spiritual harmony of colour, in supporting maximum emotional interpretation through narrative. The work of Russian artist and theorist, Wassily Kandinsky has guided deeper analysis of Black Swan into the underlying psychic experience which colour offers. Costume and lighting are examples of objects displaying colour and are believed to be the outward expression of inner meaning; colours are seen by the mind and not by the eye. Aronofsky's inner need, i.e. desire for artistic expression, is constructed from three principles which trigger sensations in the human psyche (mind) and soul: colour harmony, form harmony and from the combined form and colour, object choice. This experience is only short-lasting and very personal, differing between individuals based on culture and religion; the experience also lacks significance unless unconsciously associated with a spiritual vibration, the psychic effect. Colour is the keyboard, the eyes are the harmonies, the soul is the piano with many strings. The artist is the hand that plays, touching one key or another, to cause vibrations in the soul. |
| analysis of black swan: Black Swan Events on NATO’s Eastern Flank S. Ducaru, I. Nițu, M. Margvelashvili, 2019-02-19 A ‘Black Swan’ event is defined as an event with an exceptional or extraordinary character representing a surprise for the observer; one which has a wide impact and highlights something that has been neglected by observers in understanding what was critical in their system, procedure or unit. This book presents material from the NATO Advanced Research Workshop Black Swans on the Eastern Flank, held in Bucharest, Romania, on 18 and 19 April 2018. The workshop was designed as a response to the need to develop agile situational awareness and analysis capabilities and skills, correlated with horizon-scanning and strategic anticipation initiatives, and was conducted with particular reference to the Balkan and Black Sea regions and in the context of the broader destabilization and destructuring trends of the international security order, the challenges posed by increasing terrorism, the escalating dynamic of cyber-attack and information manipulation, and so called hybrid tactics, together with the broader impact of new technologies on security. Two situations were presented by each participating country to generate an analysis framework for the unexpected and challenging events for each state in the region; the situations likely to become their ‘Black Swans’ between 2018-2020. The discussions during this Advanced Research Workshop highlighted the nature of the scenarios, their probability, impact and the means to tackle each situation, and the book aims to provide an instrument to better prepare the systemic prevention and response, and will be essential reading for anyone interested in potential future crises in this vulnerable part of Europe. |
| analysis of black swan: Black Swan Affair K. L. Kreig, 2016-09 I've loved him as long as I can remember. The gangly boy with big brown eyes and unruly hair who grew up into an intoxicating man. He wears scruff like he invented it and ambles with a swagger that makes panties drop. Killian Shepard. Shep. We grew up together. We played Ghost in the Graveyard. Had our own rock band. It didn't matter that he was five years older than me. It didn't matter that he looked at me as a kid sister even as I grew into woman. It didn't even matter when he left me behind to go to college and start his adult life. He'd be back. He was always meant to be mine. He came back, all right. But instead of smelling of promises, he stunk of betrayal. And he destroyed me-us-the day he married my sister instead of me. So I did the only thing a girl like me in my position could do. I got my revenge. I married his brother, Kael. Now we're one big happy f**king family. |
| analysis of black swan: Murder on Black Swan Lane Andrea Penrose, 2017-06-27 In Regency London, an unconventional scientist and a fearless female artist team up to trap a cold-hearted killer: “Thoroughly enjoyable” (Deanna Raybourn, New York Times–bestselling author). The Earl of Wrexford possesses a brilliant scientific mind, but boredom and pride lead him to reckless behavior. So when pompous, pious Reverend Josiah Holworthy publicly condemns him for debauchery, Wrexford unsheathes his rapier-sharp wit and strikes back. As their war of words escalates, London’s most popular satirical cartoonist, A.J. Quill, skewers them both. But then the clergyman is found slain in a church—his face burned by chemicals, his throat slashed ear to ear—and Wrexford finds himself the chief suspect. An artist in her own right, Charlotte Sloane has secretly slipped into the persona of her late husband, using his nom de plume, A.J. Quill. When Wrexford discovers her true identity, she fears it will be her undoing. But he has a proposal—use her sources to unveil the clergyman’s clandestine involvement in questionable scientific practices, and unmask the real murderer. Soon Lord Wrexford and the mysterious Mrs. Sloane plunge into a dangerous shadow world hidden among London’s intellectual enclaves to trap a cunning adversary—before they fall victim to the next experiment in villainy . . . “Sharp, engaging characters, rich period detail, and a compellingly twisty plot, Andrea Penrose delivers a winner.” —Deanna Raybourn, New York Times–bestselling author “Fans of C.S. Harris take note! A riveting ride through Regency London, from the slums of St. Giles, to the mansions of Mayfair.” —Lauren Willig, New York Times–bestselling author “Historical chemistry meets alchemy . . . A delight of a book.&rdquo |
| analysis of black swan: Healthy Tipping Point Caitlin Boyle, 2012-05-01 Start small for big results with this inspiring guide to lifelong wellness—from popular health blogger and author of Operation Beautiful. In Healthy Tipping Point, Caitlin Boyle shares the down-to-earth philosophy and authoritative advice that has made her websites so popular. Believing that reaching a tipping point means much more than tipping the scales, Boyle helps readers find their personal ideal balance in food, fitness, love, and life, in a breakthrough program organized around three shifts: • Get Real: Challenge negative-thought patterns to create space for success • Eat Clean: Ditch conventional “diet” advice and follow a simple eating plan tailored to keep energy high, while helping the environment—including forty-five delicious vegetarian recipes for foodies on the go • Embrace Strength: Commit to a high-powered fitness program designed to help one learn to love exercise and build a strong, lean body—with targeted guidance for novice runners, bikers, swimmers, and others Featuring twenty inspiring success stories and photos of people who have transformed their lives, the book proves that a healthy body is absolutely attainable. Healthy living and a healthy self-image go hand in hand. For anyone who struggles to get fit, Healthy Tipping Point provides the drive to thrive. |
| analysis of black swan: Stalking the Black Swan Kenneth A. Posner, 2010-03-31 Kenneth A. Posner spent close to two decades as a Wall Street analyst, tracking the so-called specialty finance sector, which included controversial companies such as Countrywide, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, CIT, and MasterCard many of which were caught in the subprime mortgage and capital markets crisis of 2007. While extreme volatility is nothing new in finance, the recent downturn caught many off guard, indicating that the traditional approach to decision making had let them down. Introducing a new framework for handling and evaluating extreme risk, Posner draws on years of experience to show how decision makers can best cope with the Black Swans of our time. Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal our computers and our minds Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility. |
| analysis of black swan: Aesop’s Animals Jo Wimpenny, 2021-09-02 Turns a critical eye on Aesop's Fables to ask whether there is any scientific truth to Aesop's portrayal of his animals. Despite originating more than two-and-a-half thousand years ago, Aesop's Fables are still passed on from parent to child, and are embedded in our collective consciousness. The morals we have learned from these tales continue to inform our judgements, but have the stories also informed how we regard their animal protagonists? If so, is there any truth behind the stereotypes? Are wolves deceptive villains? Are crows insightful geniuses? And could a tortoise really beat a hare in a race? In Aesop's Animals, zoologist Jo Wimpenny turns a critical eye to the fables to discover whether there is any scientific truth to Aesop's portrayal of the animal kingdom. She brings the tales into the twenty-first century, introducing the latest findings on some of the most fascinating branches of ethological research – the study of why animals do the things they do. In each chapter she interrogates a classic fable and a different topic – future planning, tool use, self-recognition, cooperation and deception – concluding with a verdict on the veracity of each fable's portrayal from a scientific perspective. By sifting fact from fiction in one of the most beloved texts of our culture, Aesop's Animals explores and challenges our preconceived notions about animals, the way they behave, and the roles we both play in our shared world. |
| analysis of black swan: Dogen Steven Heine, 2021-12-21 An essential introduction to the life, writings, and legacy of one of Japan's most prolific Buddhist masters. The founder of the Soto school of Zen in Japan, Eihei Dogen (1200–1253) is one of the most influential Buddhist teachers of all time. Although Dogen’s writings have reached wide prominence among contemporary Buddhists and philosophers, there is much that remains enigmatic about his life and writings. In Dogen: Japan’s Original Zen Teacher, respected Dogen scholar and translator Steven Heine offers a nuanced portrait of the master’s historical context, life, and work, paying special attention to issues such as: The nature of the “great doubt” that motivated Dogen’s religious quest The sociopolitical turmoil of Kamakura Japan that led to dynamic innovations in medieval Japanese Buddhism The challenges and transformations Dogen experienced during his pivotal time in China Key inflection points and unresolved questions regarding Dogen’s teaching career in Japan Ongoing controversies in the scholarly interpretations of Dogen’s biography and teachings Synthesizing a lifetime of research and reflection into an accessible narrative, this new addition to the Lives of the Masters series illuminates thought-provoking perspectives on Dogen’s character and teachings, as well as his relevance to contemporary practitioners. |
| analysis of black swan: Incerto 4-Book Bundle Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2016-01-26 Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one ebook bundle. ANTIFRAGILE “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets—Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb’s major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness. |
| analysis of black swan: Dancing on My Grave Gelsey Kirkland, Greg Lawrence, 1986 The candid self-portrait of one of America's most famous ballerinas and a story of the high-pressure world of dance that brought the acclaimed dancer to a nightmare world of illness, drug addiction, and suicidal despair |
| analysis of black swan: Fooled by Randomness Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2008-10-14 Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year |
| analysis of black swan: Risk, Surprises and Black Swans Terje Aven, 2014-08-13 Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on. Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as ‘Black Swans’. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them. This book recognises the fundamental issues surrounding risk assessment and risk management to help you to understand and prepare for black swan events. Complete with international examples to illustrate ideas and concepts Integrates risk management and resilience based thinking Suitable for a variety of applications including engineering, finance and security. |
| analysis of black swan: Black Swan Rising Lee Carroll, 2012-08-28 A fascinating new urban fantasy series by an award-winning author |
| analysis of black swan: Superforecasting Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner, 2015-09-29 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are superforecasters. In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. |
| analysis of black swan: Bad Luck and Trouble Lee Child, 2007-05-01 THE #1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLING JACK REACHER SERIES • The inspiration for season two of the hit streaming series Reacher! “Electrifying . . . this series [is] utterly addictive.”—Janet Maslin, The New York Times From a helicopter high above the California desert, a man is sent free-falling into the night. On the streets of Portland, Jack Reacher is pulled out of his wandering life and plunged into the heart of a conspiracy that is killing old friends . . . and the people he once trusted with his life. Reacher is the ultimate loner—no phone, no ties, no address. But a woman from his old military unit has found him using a signal only the eight members of their elite team would know. Then she tells him a terrifying story about the brutal death of a man they both served with. Soon Reacher is reuniting with the survivors of his team, scrambling to unravel the sudden disappearance of two other comrades. But Reacher won’t give up—because in a world of bad luck and trouble, when someone targets Jack Reacher and his team, they’d better be ready for what comes right back at them. |
| analysis of black swan: The Bed of Procrustes Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2010-11-30 The author of the modern classics The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and Antifragile, Nassim Nicholas Taleb expresses major ideas in ways you least expect in this collection of aphorisms and meditations—now expanded with fifty percent more material than the hardcover. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from the Greek myth of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection, either by stretching them or by cutting their limbs. It represents Taleb’s view of modern civilization’s hubristic side effects—modifying humans to satisfy technology, blaming reality for not fitting economic models, inventing diseases to sell drugs, defining intelligence as what can be tested in a classroom, and convincing people that employment is not slavery. Playful and irreverent, these aphorisms will surprise you by exposing self-delusions you have been living with but never recognized. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical values of courage, elegance, and erudition with the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phonies. |
| analysis of black swan: Black Swans Eve Babitz, 2018-04-01 Babitz’s talent for the brilliant line, honed to a point, never interferes with her feel for languid pleasures. —The New York Times Book Review A new reissue of Babitz’s collection of nine stories that look back on the 1980s and early 1990s—decades of dreams, drink, and glimpses of a changing world. Black Swans further celebrates the phenomenon of Eve Babitz, cementing her reputation as the voice of a generation. With an introduction by Stephanie Danler, bestselling author of Sweetbitter. On the page, Babitz is pure pleasure—a perpetual–motion machine of no–stakes elation and champagne fizz. —The New Yorker |
| analysis of black swan: The Gray Rhino Michele Wucker, 2016-04-05 The #1 English-language bestseller in China--the book that is shaping China's planning and policy for the future. A gray rhino is a highly probable, high impact yet neglected threat: kin to both the elephant in the room and the improbable and unforeseeable black swan. Gray rhinos are not random surprises, but occur after a series of warnings and visible evidence. The bursting of the housing bubble in 2008, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina and other natural disasters, the new digital technologies that upended the media world, the fall of the Soviet Union...all were evident well in advance. Why do leaders and decision makers keep failing to address obvious dangers before they spiral out of control? Drawing on her extensive background in policy formation and crisis management, as well as in-depth interviews with leaders from around the world, Michele Wucker shows in The Gray Rhino how to recognize and strategically counter looming high impact threats. Filled with persuasive stories, real-world examples, and practical advice, The Gray Rhino is essential reading for managers, investors, planners, policy makers, and anyone who wants to understand how to profit by avoiding getting trampled. |
| analysis of black swan: Skin in the Game Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2018-02-27 #1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • A bold work from the author of The Black Swan that challenges many of our long-held beliefs about risk and reward, politics and religion, finance and personal responsibility In his most provocative and practical book yet, one of the foremost thinkers of our time redefines what it means to understand the world, succeed in a profession, contribute to a fair and just society, detect nonsense, and influence others. Citing examples ranging from Hammurabi to Seneca, Antaeus the Giant to Donald Trump, Nassim Nicholas Taleb shows how the willingness to accept one’s own risks is an essential attribute of heroes, saints, and flourishing people in all walks of life. As always both accessible and iconoclastic, Taleb challenges long-held beliefs about the values of those who spearhead military interventions, make financial investments, and propagate religious faiths. Among his insights: • For social justice, focus on symmetry and risk sharing. You cannot make profits and transfer the risks to others, as bankers and large corporations do. You cannot get rich without owning your own risk and paying for your own losses. Forcing skin in the game corrects this asymmetry better than thousands of laws and regulations. • Ethical rules aren’t universal. You’re part of a group larger than you, but it’s still smaller than humanity in general. • Minorities, not majorities, run the world. The world is not run by consensus but by stubborn minorities imposing their tastes and ethics on others. • You can be an intellectual yet still be an idiot. “Educated philistines” have been wrong on everything from Stalinism to Iraq to low-carb diets. • Beware of complicated solutions (that someone was paid to find). A simple barbell can build muscle better than expensive new machines. • True religion is commitment, not just faith. How much you believe in something is manifested only by what you’re willing to risk for it. The phrase “skin in the game” is one we have often heard but rarely stopped to truly dissect. It is the backbone of risk management, but it’s also an astonishingly rich worldview that, as Taleb shows in this book, applies to all aspects of our lives. As Taleb says, “The symmetry of skin in the game is a simple rule that’s necessary for fairness and justice, and the ultimate BS-buster,” and “Never trust anyone who doesn’t have skin in the game. Without it, fools and crooks will benefit, and their mistakes will never come back to haunt them.” |
| analysis of black swan: The Swan Book Alexis Wright, 2016-06-28 Originally published: Australia: Giramondo, 2013. |
| analysis of black swan: Against the Grammarians (Adversus Mathematicos I) Sextus (Empiricus.), 1998 Blank presents a new translation into clear modern English of a key treatise by one of the greatest of ancient philosophers, together with the first ever commentary on this work. Sextus Empiricus's Against the Grammarians is a polemical attack on ancient Greek ideas about grammar, and provides one of the best examples of sustained Sceptical reasoning. |
| analysis of black swan: The Uncanny Sigmund Freud, 2003-07-31 An extraordinary collection of thematically linked essays, including THE UNCANNY, SCREEN MEMORIES and FAMILY ROMANCES. Leonardo da Vinci fascinated Freud primarily because he was keen to know why his personality was so incomprehensible to his contemporaries. In this probing biographical essay he deconstructs both da Vinci's character and the nature of his genius. As ever, many of his exploratory avenues lead to the subject's sexuality - why did da Vinci depict the naked human body the way hedid? What of his tendency to surround himself with handsome young boys that he took on as his pupils? Intriguing, thought-provoking and often contentious, this volume contains some of Freud's best writing. |
| analysis of black swan: The Black Swan Eric Lybeck, 2017-07-05 One of the primary qualities of good creative thinking is an intellectual freedom to think outside of the box. Good creative thinkers resist orthodox ideas, take new lines of enquiry, and generally come at problems from the kinds of angles almost no one else could. And, what is more, when the ideas of creative thinkers are convincing, they can reshape an entire topic, and change the orthodoxy for good. Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s 2007 bestseller The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is precisely such a book: an entertaining, polemical, creative attack on how people in general, and economic experts in particular view the possibility of catastrophic events. Taleb writes with rare creative verve for someone who is also an expert in mathematics, finance, and epistemology (the philosophy of knowledge), and he martials all his skills to turn standard reasoning inside out. His central point is that far from being unimportant, extremely rare events are frequently the most important ones of all: it is highly improbable, but highly consequential occurrences – what he calls Black Swans – that have shaped history most. As a result, Taleb concludes, improbability is not a reason to act as if a possible event does not matter. Rather, it should inspire the opposite reaction. |
| analysis of black swan: The Treasure of the Black Swan Paco Roca, Guillermo Corral, 2022-05-03 This thrilling graphic novel, based on real events and which has been adapted into an AMC Plus miniseries (La Fortuna) starring Stanley Tucci, chronicles the intense legal and political battles sparked by the discovery of a priceless shipwreck. |
| analysis of black swan: Bright Burning Stars A.K. Small, 2019-05-21 NOW A MAJOR MOTION PICTURE: BIRDS OF PARADISE, STARRING KRISTINE FROSETH AND DIANA SILVERS. “A compulsively readable story. I was breathless and battling tears up until the very last stunning turns onstage and beyond. A dazzling, heart-wrenching debut.” —Nova Ren Suma, #1 New York Times bestselling author of The Walls Around Us Would you die for the Prize? Best friends Marine Duval and Kate Sanders have trained since childhood at the Paris Opera Ballet School, where they’ve forged an inseparable bond through shared stories of family tragedies and a powerful love for dance. When the body of a student is found in the dorms just before the start of their final year, Marine and Kate begin to ask themselves how far they would go for the ultimate prize: to be named the one girl who will join the Opera’s prestigious corps de ballet. Would they cheat? Seduce the most talented boy in the school, dubbed the Demigod, hoping his magic will make them shine, too? Would they risk death for it? Neither girl is sure. But then Kate gets closer to the Demigod, even as Marine has begun to capture his heart. And as selection day draws near, the competition—for the Prize, for the Demigod—becomes fiercer, and Marine and Kate realize they have everything to lose, including each other. Bright Burning Stars is a stunning, propulsive story about girls at their physical and emotional extremes, the gutting power of first love, and what it means to fight for your dreams. |
| analysis of black swan: The Old Man and the Sea Ernest Hemingway, 2022-08-01 DigiCat Publishing presents to you this special edition of The Old Man and the Sea by Ernest Hemingway. DigiCat Publishing considers every written word to be a legacy of humankind. Every DigiCat book has been carefully reproduced for republishing in a new modern format. The books are available in print, as well as ebooks. DigiCat hopes you will treat this work with the acknowledgment and passion it deserves as a classic of world literature. |
| analysis of black swan: Film Analysis Handbook Thomas Caldwell, 2011 The most comprehensive reference to film analysis available for middle school through to high school. Featuring coloured photographs illustrating key terms and filmic techniques this is a one-stop reference for any genre of ilm studied in English, Media or Film Studies courses. |
| analysis of black swan: Film Bodies Katharina Lindner, 2017-10-16 The representation of gender and sexuality is well-explored territory in film studies. In Film Bodies, Katharina Lindner takes existing debates into a new direction and integrates queer and feminist theory with film phenomenology. Drawing on a broad range of sources, Lindner explores the female body's presence in a range of genres including the dance film, the sports film and queer cinema. Moving across mainstream and independent cinema, Lindner provides detailed 'textural' analyses of Black Swan, The Tango Lesson, 2 Seconds, Offside, Tomboy and Girlhood and discusses the queer feminist encounters these films can give rise to. This provocative book is of vital interest to students and researchers of queer cinema, queer/feminist theory, embodiment and affect and offers a unique new way of understanding the relationship between queerness, feminism, the body and cinema. |
| analysis of black swan: Affective Decision Making Under Uncertainty Donald J. Brown, 2021-01-19 This book is an exploration of the ubiquity of ambiguity in decision-making under uncertainty. It presents various essays on behavioral economics and behavioral finance that draw on the theory of Black Swans (Taleb 2010), which argues for a distinction between unprecedented events in our past and unpredictable events in our future. The defining property of Black Swan random events is that they are unpredictable, i.e., highly unlikely random events. In this text, Mandelbrot’s (1972) operational definition of risky random unpredictable events is extended to Black Swan assets – assets for which the cumulative probability distribution or conditional probability distribution of random future asset returns is a power distribution. Ambiguous assets are assets for which the uncertainties of future returns are not risks. Consequently, there are two disjoint classes of Black Swan assets: Risky Black Swan assets and Ambiguous Black Swan assets, a new class of ambiguous assets with unpredictable random future outcomes. The text is divided into two parts, the first of which focuses on affective moods, introduces affective utility functions and discusses the ambiguity of Black Swans. The second part, which shifts the spotlight to affective equilibrium in asset markets, features chapters on affective portfolio analysis and Walrasian and Gorman Polar Form Equilibrium Inequalities. In order to gain the most from the book, readers should have completed the standard introductory graduate courses on microeconomics, behavioral finance, and convex optimization. The book is intended for advanced undergraduates, graduate students and post docs specializing in economic theory, experimental economics, finance, mathematics, computer science or data analysis. |
| analysis of black swan: Mental Disorders in Popular Film Erin Heath, 2019-02-28 Contemporary Hollywood films commonly use mental disorders as a magnifier by which social, political, or economic problems become enlarged in order to critique societal conditions. Cinema has a long history of amplifying human emotion or experience for dramatic effect. The heightened representations of people with mental disorder often elide one category of literal truths for the benefit of different moral or emotional reasons. With films like Fight Club, The Silence of the Lambs, The Dark Knight, and Black Swan, this book address characters identified by film or media as people who are crazy, mentally ill, developmentally delayed, insane, have autism spectrum disorder, associative personality disorder, or who have other mental disorders. Despite the vast array of differences in people’s experiences, film often marginalizes people with mental disorders in ways that make it important to be inclusive of these varied experiences. These characters also commonly become subject to the structures of hierarchy and control that actual people with mental disorders encounter. Cinematic patterns of control and oppression heavily influence the narratives of those considered crazy by the outside world. |
| analysis of black swan: Intellectual Warfare Todd William, 2018-02-09 A hundred-thousand years ago one of the biggest differences between humans and the rest of the animal kingdom was that we were better at catching them than they were at catching us. Today things have changed...somewhat. Thinking is easy. Anyone can think. What's important is thinking intelligently. The problem is that a battle for our minds is taking place, and most people don't even notice. We're influenced from the news, social gatherings, what we read, what we are told, and what everyone else is thinking. Salespeople, marketers, and politicians know thousands of ways to push our minds in one direction or another. The result is that society is littered with people who retain beliefs they cannot explain for reasons they do not know. What you think matters. People fight for their beliefs, defend them, and in some cases even die for them. Lesser minds might be content with easy answers and poorly thought out explanations. But if you seek a strong mind, you first must ensure that you are capable of overcoming the elements that influence the way you think. Intellectual Warfare is designed to equip you with the tools necessary to win the battle for your mind. The book spans a host of topics ranging from the human ego, natural biases, cognitive illusions, and an entire section on the weapons of persuasion constantly attacking your thought process. Aimed at anyone seeking to improve their intellect, this book will ensure you are making the most of your mind. |
| analysis of black swan: Flight of the Black Swan Marilyn M. Barnewall, 2011-05-01 Financial Fraud, Global Elitists, IntrigueIn this sequel to In what some readers call docu-fiction, the economic terrorism currently suffered by the American populace is illuminated. Once again, Barnewall gently and skillfully weaves threads of belief, love, commitment, and patriotism throughout the dark webs of deceit. |
| analysis of black swan: Nietzsche on Love Friedrich Nietzsche, 2020-01-31 Friedrich Nietzsche presented many of his greatest insights in pithy, well-turned short phrases that do not follow any philosophical dogma. Instead, his chastening but ultimately life-affirming philosophy puts forth true love and friendship as our best hope in dark times. Here are Nietzsche's key sayings about love from the vast body of his philosophical writings, which have influenced politics, philosophy, art and culture like few other works of world literature. As the first edition of its kind, this collection presents Nietzsche's thoughts on love not as academic philosophy but as a guide to life. At turns delightful and astute-and always wise-Nietzsche on Love offers an original and startling glimpse into what one of the world's foremost thinkers says about the fundamental experience of our lives. |
| analysis of black swan: A Story of Recursion Yevgenia Krasnova, 2021-01-28 The pioneering book of the Consilient School. A mix of essay and commentary, seeds of her work can be found in Milan Kundera and Gregory Bateson. This book is a Black Swan. |
| analysis of black swan: Reducing the Risk of Black Swans: Using the Science of Investing to Capture Returns with Less Volatility, 2018 Edition Larry Swedroe, Kevin Grogan, 2018-02-14 The 2018 updated edition from authors Larry Swedroe and Kevin Grogan. From Larry Swedroe, author of the bestselling series of The Only Guide investment books, and Kevin Grogan, co-author of The Only Guide You'll Ever Need for the Right Financial Plan, comes the 2018 edition of Reducing the Risk of Black Swans. Designed for professional financial advisors and educated investors alike, Swedroe and Grogan wrote this book especially for those looking to expand their technical knowledge of the evidence-based investing world. Swans provides an in-depth look at portfolio construction and offers a roadmap for those interested in refining their portfolio. From CAPM to the three-factor model, Swedroe and Grogan present some of the academic underpinnings that have led to what we now commonly recognize to be modern financial theory. Taking it one step further, they provide specifics on what it takes to build a more efficient portfolio, in particular using new alternative investments. Based on an overwhelming amount of hard data and research, Swedroe and Grogan make their case for reducing the risk of black swans. |
| analysis of black swan: Decolonizing the Hindu Mind Koenraad Elst, 2001 |
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