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| expected utility theory in psychology: Behavioral Decision Theory Kazuhisa Takemura, 2021-09-29 This book is the second edition of Behavioral Decision Theory, published in 2014. The main approach and structure of this book have been retained in the new edition. However, this second edition provides a fresh overview of the idea of behavioral decision theory and related research findings such as theoretical and empirical discoveries of preference formation, time discounting, social interaction, and social decision making. The book covers a wide range from classical to relatively recent major studies concerning behavioral decision theory, which, in brief, is a general term for descriptive theories to explain the psychological knowledge related to people’s decision-making behavior. It is called a theory but is actually a combination of various psychological theories, for which no axiomatic systems—such as those associated with the utility theory widely used in economics—have been established. The utility theory is often limited to qualitative knowledge; however, as the studies of Nobel laureates H. A. Simon, D. Kahneman, and R. Thaler have suggested, the psychological methodology and knowledge of behavioral decision theory have been applied widely in such fields as economics, business administration, and engineering and are expected to become even more useful in the future. Research into people’s decision making represents an important part in those fields, various aspects of which overlap with the scope of behavioral decision theory. This theory is closely related to behavioral economics and behavioral finance, which have come into greater use in recent years. This book will appeal especially to graduate students, advanced undergraduate students, and researchers who are interested in decision-making phenomena. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Handbook of the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty Mark Machina, W. Kip Viscusi, 2013-11-14 The need to understand the theories and applications of economic and finance risk has been clear to everyone since the financial crisis, and this collection of original essays proffers broad, high-level explanations of risk and uncertainty. The economics of risk and uncertainty is unlike most branches of economics in spanning from the individual decision-maker to the market (and indeed, social decisions), and ranging from purely theoretical analysis through individual experimentation, empirical analysis, and applied and policy decisions. It also has close and sometimes conflicting relationships with theoretical and applied statistics, and psychology. The aim of this volume is to provide an overview of diverse aspects of this field, ranging from classical and foundational work through current developments. - Presents coherent summaries of risk and uncertainty that inform major areas in economics and finance - Divides coverage between theoretical, empirical, and experimental findings - Makes the economics of risk and uncertainty accessible to scholars in fields outside economics |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Utility Theories: Measurements and Applications Ward Edwards, 2013-12-01 The Conference on Utility: Theories, Measurements, and Applications met at the Inn at Pasatiempo in Santa Cruz, California, from June II to 15, 1989. The all-star cast of attendees are listed as authors in the Table of Contents of this book (see p. V), except for Soo Hong Chew and Amos Tversky. The purpose of the conference, and of National Science Foundation Grant No. SES-8823012 that supported it, was to confront proponents of new generalized theories of utility with leading decision analysts com mitted to the implementation, in practice, of the more traditional theory that these new theories reject. That traditional model is variously iden tified in this book as expected utility or subjectively expected utility maximization (EU or SEU for short) and variously attributed to von Neumann and Morgenstern or Savage. I had feared that the conference might consist of an acrimonious debate between Olympian normative theorists uninterested in what people actually do and behavioral modelers obsessed with the cognitive illusions and uninterested in helping people to make wise decisions. I was entirely wrong. The conferees, in two dramatic straw votes at the open ing session, unanimously endorsed traditional SEU as the appropriate normative model and unanimously agreed that people don't act as that model requires. (These votes had a profound impact on my thinking; detail about them and about that impact is located in Chapter 10. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: The Foundations of Expected Utility P.C. Fishburn, 2013-03-14 This book offers a unified treatment of my research in the foundations of expected utility theory from around 1965 to 1980. While parts are new, the presentation draws heavily on published articles and a few chapters in my 1970 monograph on utility theory. The diverse notations and styles of the sources have of course been reconciled here, and their topics arranged in a logical sequence. The two parts of the book take their respective cues from the von Neumann-Morgenstern axiomatization of preferences between risky options and from Savage's foundational treatment of decision making under uncertainty. Both parts are studies in the axiomatics of preferences for decision situations and in numerical representations for preferences. Proofs of the representation and uniqueness theorems appear at the ends of the chapters so as not to impede the flow of the discussion. A few warnings on notation are in order. The numbers for theorems cited within a chapter have no prefix if they appear in that chapter, but otherwise carry a chapter prefix (Theorem 3.2 is Theorem 2 in Chapter 3). All lower case Greek letters refer to numbers in the closed interval from o to 1. The same symbol in different chapters has essentially the same meaning with one major exception: x, y, ... mean quite different things in different chapters. I am indebted to many people for their help and encouragement. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Measuring Utility Ivan Moscati, 2019 Utility is a key concept in the economics of individual decision-making. However, utility is not measurable in a straightforward way. As a result, from the very beginning there has been debates about the meaning of utility as well as how to measure it. This book is an innovative investigation of how these arguments changed over time. Measuring Utility reconstructs economists' ideas and discussions about utility measurement from 1870 to 1985, as well as their attempts to measure utility empirically. The book brings into focus the interplay between the evolution of utility analysis, economists' ideas about utility measurement, and their conception of what measurement in general means. It also explores the relationships between the history of utility measurement in economics, the history of the measurement of sensations in psychology, and the history of measurement theory in general. Finally, the book discusses some methodological problems related to utility measurement, such as the epistemological status of the utility concept and its measures. The first part covers the period 1870-1910, and discusses the issue of utility measurement in the theories of Jevons, Menger, Walras and other early utility theorists. Part II deals with the emergence of the notions of ordinal and cardinal utility during the period 1900-1945, and discusses two early attempts to give an empirical content to the notion of utility. Part III focuses on the 1945-1955 debate on utility measurement that was originated by von Neumann and Morgenstern's expected utility theory (EUT). Part IV reconstructs the experimental attempts to measure the utility of money between 1950 and 1985 within the framework provided by EUT. This historical and epistemological overview provides keen insights into current debates about rational choice theory and behavioral economics in the theory of individual decision-making and the philosophy of economics. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Applying Particle Swarm Optimization Burcu Adıgüzel Mercangöz, 2021-05-13 This book explains the theoretical structure of particle swarm optimization (PSO) and focuses on the application of PSO to portfolio optimization problems. The general goal of portfolio optimization is to find a solution that provides the highest expected return at each level of portfolio risk. According to H. Markowitz’s portfolio selection theory, as new assets are added to an investment portfolio, the total risk of the portfolio’s decreases depending on the correlations of asset returns, while the expected return on the portfolio represents the weighted average of the expected returns for each asset. The book explains PSO in detail and demonstrates how to implement Markowitz’s portfolio optimization approach using PSO. In addition, it expands on the Markowitz model and seeks to improve the solution-finding process with the aid of various algorithms. In short, the book provides researchers, teachers, engineers, managers and practitioners with many tools they need to apply the PSO technique to portfolio optimization. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Risky Curves Daniel Friedman, R. Mark Isaac, Duncan James, Shyam Sunder, 2014-02-05 For several decades, the orthodox economics approach to understanding choice under risk has been to assume that each individual person maximizes some sort of personal utility function defined over purchasing power. This new volume contests that even the best wisdom from the orthodox theory has not yet been able to do better than supposedly naïve models that use rules of thumb, or that focus on the consumption possibilities and economic constraints facing the individual. The authors assert this by first revisiting the origins of orthodox theory. They then recount decades of failed attempts to obtain meaningful empirical validation or calibration of the theory. Estimated shapes and parameters of the curves have varied erratically from domain to domain (e.g., individual choice versus aggregate behavior), from context to context, from one elicitation mechanism to another, and even from the same individual at different time periods, sometimes just minutes apart. This book proposes the return to a simpler sort of scientific theory of risky choice, one that focuses not upon unobservable curves but rather upon the potentially observable opportunities and constraints facing decision makers. It argues that such an opportunities-based model offers superior possibilities for scientific advancement. At the very least, linear utility – in the presence of constraints - is a useful bar for the curved alternatives to clear. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Prospect Theory Peter P. Wakker, 2010-07-22 Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity, provides a comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Philosophy of Economics Uskali Mäki, 2012-06-12 Part of the Handbook of the Philosophy of Science Series edited by: Dov M. Gabbay King's College, London, UK; Paul Thagard University of Waterloo, Canada; and John Woods University of British Columbia, Canada. Philosophy of Economics investigates the foundational concepts and methods of economics, the social science that analyzes the production, distribution and consumption of goods and services. This groundbreaking collection, the most thorough treatment of the philosophy of economics ever published, brings together philosophers, scientists and historians to map out the central topics in the field. The articles are divided into two groups. Chapters in the first group deal with various philosophical issues characteristic of economics in general, including realism and Lakatos, explanation and testing, modeling and mathematics, political ideology and feminist epistemology. Chapters in the second group discuss particular methods, theories and branches of economics, including forecasting and measurement, econometrics and experimentation, rational choice and agency issues, game theory and social choice, behavioral economics and public choice, geographical economics and evolutionary economics, and finally the economics of scientific knowledge. This volume serves as a detailed introduction for those new to the field as well as a rich source of new insights and potential research agendas for those already engaged with the philosophy of economics. Provides a bridge between philosophy and current scientific findings Encourages multi-disciplinary dialogue Covers theory and applications |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Client Psychology CFP Board, 2018-02-19 A Client-Centered approach to Financial Planning Practice built by Research for Practitioners The second in the CFP Board Center for Financial Planning Series, Client Psychology explores the biases, behaviors, and perceptions that impact client decision-making and overall financial well-being. This book, written for practitioners, researchers, and educators, outlines the theory behind many of these areas while also explicitly stating how these related areas directly impact financial planning practice. Additionally, some chapters build an argument based solely upon theory while others will have exclusively practical applications. Defines an entirely new area of focus within financial planning practice and research: Client Psychology Serves as the essential reference for financial planners on client psychology Builds upon and expands the body of knowledge for financial planning Provides insight regarding the factors that impact client financial decision-making from a multidisciplinary approach If you’re a CFP® professional, researcher, financial advisor, or student pursuing a career in financial planning or financial services, this book deserves a prominent spot on your professional bookshelf. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Expectations and Actions Norman T. Feather, 2021-12-30 Originally published in 1982, this book examines the current status of expectancy-value models in psychology. The focus is upon cognitive models that relate action to the perceived attractiveness or aversiveness of expected consequences. A person’s behavior is seen to bear some relation to the expectations the person holds and the subjective value of the consequences that might occur following the action. Despite widespread interest in the expectancy-value (valence) approach at the time, there was no book that looked at its current status and discussed its strengths and its weaknesses, using contributions from some of the theorists who were involved in its original and subsequent development and from others who were influenced by it or had cause to examine the approach closely. This book was planned to meet this need. The chapters in this book relate to such areas as achievement motivation, attribution theory, information feedback, organizational psychology, the psychology of values and attitudes, and decision theory and in some cases they advance the expectancy-value approach further and, in other cases, point to some of its deficiencies. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Prospect Theory Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky, 1979 |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Handbook of the Fundamentals of Financial Decision Making Leonard C. MacLean, William T. Ziemba, 2013 This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2 nd edition published in 2006). |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Encyclopedia of Quality of Life and Well-Being Research Alex C. Michalos, 2014-02-12 The aim of this encyclopedia is to provide a comprehensive reference work on scientific and other scholarly research on the quality of life, including health-related quality of life research or also called patient-reported outcomes research. Since the 1960s two overlapping but fairly distinct research communities and traditions have developed concerning ideas about the quality of life, individually and collectively, one with a fairly narrow focus on health-related issues and one with a quite broad focus. In many ways, the central issues of these fields have roots extending to the observations and speculations of ancient philosophers, creating a continuous exploration by diverse explorers in diverse historic and cultural circumstances over several centuries of the qualities of human existence. What we have not had so far is a single, multidimensional reference work connecting the most salient and important contributions to the relevant fields. Entries are organized alphabetically and cover basic concepts, relatively well established facts, lawlike and causal relations, theories, methods, standardized tests, biographic entries on significant figures, organizational profiles, indicators and indexes of qualities of individuals and of communities of diverse sizes, including rural areas, towns, cities, counties, provinces, states, regions, countries and groups of countries. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Encyclopedia of Medical Decision Making Michael W. Kattan, Mark E. Cowen, 2009-08-18 The Encyclopedia of Medical Decision Making presents state-of-the-art research and ready-to-use facts sorting out findings on medical decision making and their applications. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: The Foundations of Statistics Leonard J. Savage, 2012-08-29 Classic analysis of the foundations of statistics and development of personal probability, one of the greatest controversies in modern statistical thought. Revised edition. Calculus, probability, statistics, and Boolean algebra are recommended. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Rational Choice in an Uncertain World Reid Hastie, Robyn M. Dawes, 2010 In the Second Edition of Rational Choice in an Uncertain World the authors compare the basic principles of rationality with actual behaviour in making decisions. They describe theories and research findings from the field of judgment and decision making in a non-technical manner, using anecdotes as a teaching device. Intended as an introductory textbook for advanced undergraduate and graduate students, the material not only is of scholarly interest but is practical as well. The Second Edition includes: - more coverage on the role of emotions, happiness, and general well-being in decisions - a summary of the new research on the neuroscience of decision processes - more discussion of the adaptive value of (non-rational heuristics) - expansion of the graphics for decision trees, probability trees, and Venn diagrams. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: The Capital Asset Pricing Model in the 21st Century Haim Levy, 2011-10-30 The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the mean-variance (M-V) rule, which are based on classic expected utility theory, have been heavily criticized theoretically and empirically. The advent of behavioral economics, prospect theory and other psychology-minded approaches in finance challenges the rational investor model from which CAPM and M-V derive. Haim Levy argues that the tension between the classic financial models and behavioral economics approaches is more apparent than real. This book aims to relax the tension between the two paradigms. Specifically, Professor Levy shows that although behavioral economics contradicts aspects of expected utility theory, CAPM and M-V are intact in both expected utility theory and cumulative prospect theory frameworks. There is furthermore no evidence to reject CAPM empirically when ex-ante parameters are employed. Professionals may thus comfortably teach and use CAPM and behavioral economics or cumulative prospect theory as coexisting paradigms. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Advances in Behavioral Economics Colin F. Camerer, George Loewenstein, Matthew Rabin, 2004 Today, behavioral economics has become virtually mainstream. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Philosophy of Technology and Engineering Sciences , 2009-11-27 The Handbook Philosophy of Technology and Engineering Sciences addresses numerous issues in the emerging field of the philosophy of those sciences that are involved in the technological process of designing, developing and making of new technical artifacts and systems. These issues include the nature of design, of technological knowledge, and of technical artifacts, as well as the toolbox of engineers. Most of these have thus far not been analyzed in general philosophy of science, which has traditionally but inadequately regarded technology as mere applied science and focused on physics, biology, mathematics and the social sciences. - First comprehensive philosophical handbook on technology and the engineering sciences - Unparalleled in scope including explorative articles - In depth discussion of technical artifacts and their ontology - Provides extensive analysis of the nature of engineering design - Focuses in detail on the role of models in technology |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Behavioural Economics: A Very Short Introduction Michelle Baddeley, 2017-01-19 Traditionally economists have based their economic predictions on the assumption that humans are super-rational creatures, using the information we are given efficiently and generally making selfish decisions that work well for us as individuals. Economists also assume that we're doing the very best we can possibly do - not only for today, but over our whole lifetimes too. But increasingly the study of behavioural economics is revealing that our lives are not that simple. Instead, our decisions are complicated by our own psychology. Each of us makes mistakes every day. We don't always know what's best for us and, even if we do, we might not have the self-control to deliver on our best intentions. We struggle to stay on diets, to get enough exercise and to manage our money. We misjudge risky situations. We are prone to herding: sometimes peer pressure leads us blindly to copy others around us; other times copying others helps us to learn quickly about new, unfamiliar situations. This Very Short Introduction explores the reasons why we make irrational decisions; how we decide quickly; why we make mistakes in risky situations; our tendency to procrastination; and how we are affected by social influences, personality, mood and emotions. The implications of understanding the rationale for our own financial behaviour are huge. Behavioural economics could help policy-makers to understand the people behind their policies, enabling them to design more effective policies, while at the same time we could find ourselves assaulted by increasingly savvy marketing. Michelle Baddeley concludes by looking forward, to see what the future of behavioural economics holds for us. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Optimizing Optimization Stephen Satchell, 2009-09-19 The practical aspects of optimization rarely receive global, balanced examinations. Stephen Satchell's nuanced assembly of technical presentations about optimization packages (by their developers) and about current optimization practice and theory (by academic researchers) makes available highly practical solutions to our post-liquidity bubble environment. The commercial chapters emphasize algorithmic elements without becoming sales pitches, and the academic chapters create context and explore development opportunities. Together they offer an incisive perspective that stretches toward new products, new techniques, and new answers in quantitative finance. - Presents a unique confrontation between software engineers and academics - Highlights a global view of common optimization issues - Emphasizes the research and market challenges of optimization software while avoiding sales pitches - Accentuates real applications, not laboratory results |
| expected utility theory in psychology: The Pursuit of Happiness Louis Narens, Brian Skyrms, 2020-10-08 Utilitarianism began as a movement for social reform that changed the world, based on the ideal of maximizing pleasure and minimizing pain. There is a tendency to enter into debates for and against the ethical doctrine of Utilitarianism without a clear understanding of its basic concepts. The Pursuit of Happiness now offers a rigorous account of the foundations of Utilitarianism, and vividly sets out possible ways forward for its future development. To understand Utilitarianism, we must understand utility: how is it to be measured, and how the aggregate utility of a group can be understood. Louis Narens and Brian Skyrms, respectively a cognitive scientist and a philosopher, pursue these questions by adopting both formal and historical methods, examining theories of measuring utility from Jeremy Bentham, the founder of the Utilitarian movement, to the present day, taking in psychophysics, positivism, measurement theory, meaningfulness, neuropsychology, representation theorems, and the dynamics of formation of conventions. On this basis, Narens and Skyrms argue that a meaningful form of Utilitarianism that can coordinate action in social groups is possible through interpersonal comparison and the formation of conventions. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Decision, Probability and Utility Peter Gärdenfors, Nils-Eric Sahlin, 1988-04-29 Decision theory and the theory of rational choice have recently been the subjects of considerable research by philosophers and economists. However, no adequate anthology exists which can be used to introduce students to the field. This volume is designed to meet that need. The essays included are organized into five parts covering the foundations of decision theory, the conceptualization of probability and utility, pholosophical difficulties with the rules of rationality and with the assessment of probability, and causal decision theory. The editors provide an extensive introduction to the field and introductions to each part. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Neuroeconomics Paul W. Glimcher, 2013-08-13 In the years since it first published, Neuroeconomics: Decision Making and the Brain has become the standard reference and textbook in the burgeoning field of neuroeconomics. The second edition, a nearly complete revision of this landmark book, will set a new standard. This new edition features five sections designed to serve as both classroom-friendly introductions to each of the major subareas in neuroeconomics, and as advanced synopses of all that has been accomplished in the last two decades in this rapidly expanding academic discipline. The first of these sections provides useful introductions to the disciplines of microeconomics, the psychology of judgment and decision, computational neuroscience, and anthropology for scholars and students seeking interdisciplinary breadth. The second section provides an overview of how human and animal preferences are represented in the mammalian nervous systems. Chapters on risk, time preferences, social preferences, emotion, pharmacology, and common neural currencies—each written by leading experts—lay out the foundations of neuroeconomic thought. The third section contains both overview and in-depth chapters on the fundamentals of reinforcement learning, value learning, and value representation. The fourth section, The Neural Mechanisms for Choice, integrates what is known about the decision-making architecture into state-of-the-art models of how we make choices. The final section embeds these mechanisms in a larger social context, showing how these mechanisms function during social decision-making in both humans and animals. The book provides a historically rich exposition in each of its chapters and emphasizes both the accomplishments and the controversies in the field. A clear explanatory style and a single expository voice characterize all chapters, making core issues in economics, psychology, and neuroscience accessible to scholars from all disciplines. The volume is essential reading for anyone interested in neuroeconomics in particular or decision making in general. - Editors and contributing authors are among the acknowledged experts and founders in the field, making this the authoritative reference for neuroeconomics - Suitable as an advanced undergraduate or graduate textbook as well as a thorough reference for active researchers - Introductory chapters on economics, psychology, neuroscience, and anthropology provide students and scholars from any discipline with the keys to understanding this interdisciplinary field - Detailed chapters on subjects that include reinforcement learning, risk, inter-temporal choice, drift-diffusion models, game theory, and prospect theory make this an invaluable reference - Published in association with the Society for Neuroeconomics—www.neuroeconomics.org - Full-color presentation throughout with numerous carefully selected illustrations to highlight key concepts |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Utility and Probability John Eatwell, Murray Milgate, Peter Newman, 1990-02-23 This is an excerpt from the 4-volume dictionary of economics, a reference book which aims to define the subject of economics today. 1300 subject entries in the complete work cover the broad themes of economic theory. This extract concentrates on utility and probability. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty George G. Szpiro, 2020-01-07 At its core, economics is about making decisions. In the history of economic thought, great intellectual prowess has been exerted toward devising exquisite theories of optimal decision making in situations of constraint, risk, and scarcity. Yet not all of our choices are purely logical, and so there is a longstanding tension between those emphasizing the rational and irrational sides of human behavior. One strand develops formal models of rational utility maximizing while the other draws on what behavioral science has shown about our tendency to act irrationally. In Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty, George G. Szpiro offers a new narrative of the three-century history of the study of decision making, tracing how crucial ideas have evolved and telling the stories of the thinkers who shaped the field. Szpiro examines economics from the early days of theories spun from anecdotal evidence to the rise of a discipline built around elegant mathematics through the past half century’s interest in describing how people actually behave. Considering the work of Locke, Bentham, Jevons, Walras, Friedman, Tversky and Kahneman, Thaler, and a range of other thinkers, he sheds light on the vast scope of discovery since Bernoulli first proposed a solution to the St. Petersburg Paradox. Presenting fundamental mathematical theories in easy-to-understand language, Risk, Choice, and Uncertainty is a revelatory history for readers seeking to grasp the grand sweep of economic thought. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: General Theory Of Employment , Interest And Money John Maynard Keynes, 2016-04 John Maynard Keynes is the great British economist of the twentieth century whose hugely influential work The General Theory of Employment, Interest and * is undoubtedly the century's most important book on economics--strongly influencing economic theory and practice, particularly with regard to the role of government in stimulating and regulating a nation's economic life. Keynes's work has undergone significant revaluation in recent years, and Keynesian views which have been widely defended for so long are now perceived as at odds with Keynes's own thinking. Recent scholarship and research has demonstrated considerable rivalry and controversy concerning the proper interpretation of Keynes's works, such that recourse to the original text is all the more important. Although considered by a few critics that the sentence structures of the book are quite incomprehensible and almost unbearable to read, the book is an essential reading for all those who desire a basic education in economics. The key to understanding Keynes is the notion that at particular times in the business cycle, an economy can become over-productive (or under-consumptive) and thus, a vicious spiral is begun that results in massive layoffs and cuts in production as businesses attempt to equilibrate aggregate supply and demand. Thus, full employment is only one of many or multiple macro equilibria. If an economy reaches an underemployment equilibrium, something is necessary to boost or stimulate demand to produce full employment. This something could be business investment but because of the logic and individualist nature of investment decisions, it is unlikely to rapidly restore full employment. Keynes logically seizes upon the public budget and government expenditures as the quickest way to restore full employment. Borrowing the * to finance the deficit from private households and businesses is a quick, direct way to restore full employment while at the same time, redirecting or siphoning |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Is Behavioral Economics Doomed? David K. Levine, 2012 In this book, David K. Levine questions the idea that behavioral economics is the answer to economic problems. He explores the successes and failures of contemporary economics both inside and outside the laboratory, and asks whether popular behavioral theories of psychological biases are solutions to the failures. The book not only provides an overview of popular behavioral theories and their history, but also gives the reader the tools for scrutinizing them. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Decision Making under Uncertainty Kerstin Preuschoff, Peter N. C. Mohr, Ming Hsu, 2015-06-16 Most decisions in life are based on incomplete information and have uncertain consequences. To successfully cope with real-life situations, the nervous system has to estimate, represent and eventually resolve uncertainty at various levels. A common tradeoff in such decisions involves those between the magnitude of the expected rewards and the uncertainty of obtaining the rewards. For instance, a decision maker may choose to forgo the high expected rewards of investing in the stock market and settle instead for the lower expected reward and much less uncertainty of a savings account. Little is known about how different forms of uncertainty, such as risk or ambiguity, are processed and learned about and how they are integrated with expected rewards and individual preferences throughout the decision making process. With this Research Topic we aim to provide a deeper and more detailed understanding of the processes behind decision making under uncertainty. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: The Handbook of Economic Methodology John Bryan Davis, D. Wade Hands, Uskali Mäki, 1998 A multidisciplinary reference in which over 100 commissioned essays provide details of topics and issues that have developed in recent decades and introduce a variety of emerging themes that economic methodologists have begun to explore. The encyclopedia- type articles discuss such topics as aggregation, evolutionary economics, Otto Neurath, survey methods, Thorstein Veblen, selectionist arguments, the marginalist controversy, game theory, economic sociology, and causality. Each includes an extensive bibliography. Practicing economists and students of the philosophy or history of economics might find useful information and an entry into deeper investigation. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty Itzhak Gilboa, 2009-03-16 This book describes the classical axiomatic theories of decision under uncertainty, as well as critiques thereof and alternative theories. It focuses on the meaning of probability, discussing some definitions and surveying their scope of applicability. The behavioral definition of subjective probability serves as a way to present the classical theories, culminating in Savage's theorem. The limitations of this result as a definition of probability lead to two directions - first, similar behavioral definitions of more general theories, such as non-additive probabilities and multiple priors, and second, cognitive derivations based on case-based techniques. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Decision Science and Technology James Shanteau, Barbara A. Mellers, David A. Schum, 2012-12-06 Decision Science and Technology is a compilation of chapters written in honor of a remarkable man, Ward Edwards. Among Ward's many contributions are two significant accomplishments, either of which would have been enough for a very distinguished career. First, Ward is the founder of behavioral decision theory. This interdisciplinary discipline addresses the question of how people actually confront decisions, as opposed to the question of how they should make decisions. Second, Ward laid the groundwork for sound normative systems by noticing which tasks humans can do well and which tasks computers should perform. This volume, organized into five parts, reflects those accomplishments and more. The book is divided into four sections: `Behavioral Decision Theory' examines theoretical descriptions and empirical findings about human decision making. `Decision Analysis' examines topics in decision analysis.`Decision in Society' explores issues in societal decision making. The final section, `Historical Notes', provides some historical perspectives on the development of the decision theory. Within these sections, major, multi-disciplinary scholars in decision theory have written chapters exploring some very bold themes in the field, as an examination of the book's contents will show. The main reason for the health of the Decision Analysis field is its close links between theory and applications that have characterized it over the years. In this volume, the chapters by Barron and Barrett; Fishburn; Fryback; Keeney; Moreno, Pericchi, and Kadane; Howard; Phillips; Slovic and Gregory; Winkler; and, above all, von Winterfeldt focus on those links. Decision science originally developed out of concern with real decision problems; and applied work, such as is represented in this volume, will help the field to remain strong. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Avoiding Losses/taking Risks Barbara Farnham, 1994 The impact of prospect theory on international relations theory |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Economic Psychology Rob Ranyard, 2017-06-22 A comprehensive overview of contemporary economic psychology Economic Psychology presents an accessible overview of contemporary economic psychology. The science of economic mental life and behavior is increasingly relevant as people are expected to take more responsibility for their household and personal economic decisions. The text will, in addition to reviewing current knowledge on each topic presented, consider the practical and policy implications for supporting economic decision making. Economic Psychology examines the central aspects of adult decision making in everyday life and includes the theories of economic decision making based on risk, value and affect, and theories of intertemporal choice. The text reviews the nature and behavioral consequences of economic mental representations about such things as material possessions, money and the economy. The editor Robert Ranyard—a noted expert on economic psychology—presents a life-span developmental approach, from childhood to old age. He also reviews the important societal issues such as charitable giving and economic sustainability. This vital resource: Reviews the economic psychology in everyday life including financial behaviour such as saving and tax-paying and matters such as entrepreneurial activity Offers an introduction to the field and traces the emergence of the discipline, from Adam Smith to George Katona and Herbert Simon Includes information on societal issues such as charitable giving and pro-environmental behaviour Considers broader perspectives on economic psychology: life-span psychological development from childhood to old age Written for students of psychology, Economic Psychology reviews the most important information on contemporary economic psychology with a focus on individual and household economic decision making, ranging widely across financial matters such as borrowing and saving, and economic activities such as buying, trading, and working. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Statistics for High-Dimensional Data Peter Bühlmann, Sara van de Geer, 2011-06-08 Modern statistics deals with large and complex data sets, and consequently with models containing a large number of parameters. This book presents a detailed account of recently developed approaches, including the Lasso and versions of it for various models, boosting methods, undirected graphical modeling, and procedures controlling false positive selections. A special characteristic of the book is that it contains comprehensive mathematical theory on high-dimensional statistics combined with methodology, algorithms and illustrations with real data examples. This in-depth approach highlights the methods’ great potential and practical applicability in a variety of settings. As such, it is a valuable resource for researchers, graduate students and experts in statistics, applied mathematics and computer science. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Risk attitude & Economics Laura Concina, 2014-05-01 This document is an introduction, for non-economists, to standard and behavioral economic theories of risk and uncertainty. It describes some broadly-accepted results in economics that are determinant in decision-making under risk or uncertainty and in situations where we have to deal with losses and gains. To illustrate this point, the document presents a selection of theoretical results, ponctuated with examples taken from everyday life, and research studies in economics and psychology on the perception of risk. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Recent Developments in the Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory L. Daboni, Aldo M. Montesano, M. Lines, 2012-12-06 The Second International Conference on Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory was held in Venice, June 1984. This volume presents some of the papers delivered at FUR-84. (The First International Conference, FUR-82, was held in Oslo and some of the papers presented on that occasion were published by Reidel in the volume Foundations of Utility and Risk Theory with Applications, edited by Bernt P. Stigum and Fred Wenst~p). The theory of choice under uncertainty involves a vast range of controversial issues in many fields like economics, philosophy, psychology, mathematics and statistics. The idea of discussing these problems in international conferences has been successful: two conferences have been held and others will follow. The climate of the debate has changed in the meantime, partly as a result of these conferences. It is no more only a question of attacking or defending the neo-Bernoullian assumptions, but also of proposing wider generalizations and including new elements in the analysis of the decision process. For instance Amartya Sen - comparing the two current notions of rationality, internal consistency and self-interest pursuit introduces the concept of reasoning and considers the irrationality which may result from the failure of a positive correspondence between reasoning and choice or from a limited capacity of reasoning. Rationality is also considered with respect to the controversial axiom of strong independence. John C. Harsanyi introduces the concept of practical certainty, i. e. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: Expected Utility Hypotheses and the Allais Paradox M. Allais, G.M. Hagen, 2013-03-14 Utility theory or, value theory in general, is certainly the cornerstone of decision theory, game theory, microecon~mics, and all social and political theories which deal with public decisions. Recently the American School of utility, founded by von N eumann Morgenstern, encountered a far-going criticism by the French School of utility represented by its founder Allais. The whole basis of the theory of decisions involving risk has been shaken and put into question. Consequently, basic research in the fundamentals of utility and value theory evolved into a crisis. Like any crisis in basic research, and this one was not an exception, it was very fruitful. One may simply say: Allais versus von Neumann-Morgenstern, or the French School of utility versus the American School, became one of the battlefields of scientific development which proved to be a most creative source of new advances and new developments in all those sciences which are based on evaluation of utilities. |
| expected utility theory in psychology: The Folly of Fools Robert Trivers, 2011-10-25 Explores the author's theorized evolutionary basis for self-deception, which he says is tied to group conflict, courtship, neurophysiology, and immunology, but can be negated by awareness of it and its results. |
class - How to fix java:1: error: ' {' expected - Stack Overflow
Other problems. Random::nextInt return an int not a String, so the declaration private String price; should be private int price;.
python - SyntaxError: expected - Stack Overflow
May 6, 2023 · Ask questions, find answers and collaborate at work with Stack Overflow for Teams. Try Teams for free Explore Teams
How can I solve the error 'expected expression'? - Stack Overflow
Apr 27, 2021 · The quick fix is to add -std=c++17 to support this C++ feature.. The actual fix is to use C++ more effectively, like employing a std::vector plus using emplace_back to create …
eclipse - "Expected::" error in python - Stack Overflow
Jan 9, 2013 · Ask questions, find answers and collaborate at work with Stack Overflow for Teams. Explore Teams
ORA-00932: inconsistent datatypes: expected - got CLOB
Considering that TEST_SCRIPT is a CLOB why when I run this simple query from SQL*PLUS on Oracle, I get the error: ORA-00932: inconsistent datatypes: expected - got CLOB I have been …
java - '(' or '[' Expected - Stack Overflow
It's the call to the constructor that's the problem, it should be. ArrayList accounts = new ArrayList(); Also, you would do well to specify it like this:
TypeScript error TS1005: ';' expected (II) - Stack Overflow
Sep 25, 2017 · I’d like to add an additional note to the accepted answer above. The root cause is absolutely correct: an incorrect\outdated TypeScript version.
word choice - "Expected of" vs. "expected from" - English …
Yes, rhetoric is, indeed, the only thing that needs rule. Expected of implies a movement of after-the-fact anticipation in the direction from the subject to the object of expectation Expected from …
c++ - How to fix "expected a declaration"? - Stack Overflow
Nov 19, 2019 · How to fix "expected a declaration"? Ask Question Asked 5 years, 6 months ago. Modified 5 years, 6 months ago.
error: expected class-name before ‘ {’ token - Stack Overflow
c++ expected class-name before '{' token class inheritance. 0. Why is a class, which seems to be properly ...
class - How to fix java:1: error: ' {' expected - Stack Overflow
Other problems. Random::nextInt return an int not a String, so the declaration private String price; should be private int price;.
python - SyntaxError: expected - Stack Overflow
May 6, 2023 · Ask questions, find answers and collaborate at work with Stack Overflow for Teams. Try Teams for free Explore Teams
How can I solve the error 'expected expression'? - Stack Overflow
Apr 27, 2021 · The quick fix is to add -std=c++17 to support this C++ feature.. The actual fix is to use C++ more effectively, like employing a std::vector plus using emplace_back to create entries …
eclipse - "Expected::" error in python - Stack Overflow
Jan 9, 2013 · Ask questions, find answers and collaborate at work with Stack Overflow for Teams. Explore Teams
ORA-00932: inconsistent datatypes: expected - got CLOB
Considering that TEST_SCRIPT is a CLOB why when I run this simple query from SQL*PLUS on Oracle, I get the error: ORA-00932: inconsistent datatypes: expected - got CLOB I have been …
java - '(' or '[' Expected - Stack Overflow
It's the call to the constructor that's the problem, it should be. ArrayList accounts = new ArrayList(); Also, you would do well to specify it like this:
TypeScript error TS1005: ';' expected (II) - Stack Overflow
Sep 25, 2017 · I’d like to add an additional note to the accepted answer above. The root cause is absolutely correct: an incorrect\outdated TypeScript version.
word choice - "Expected of" vs. "expected from" - English …
Yes, rhetoric is, indeed, the only thing that needs rule. Expected of implies a movement of after-the-fact anticipation in the direction from the subject to the object of expectation Expected from …
c++ - How to fix "expected a declaration"? - Stack Overflow
Nov 19, 2019 · How to fix "expected a declaration"? Ask Question Asked 5 years, 6 months ago. Modified 5 years, 6 months ago.
error: expected class-name before ‘ {’ token - Stack Overflow
c++ expected class-name before '{' token class inheritance. 0. Why is a class, which seems to be properly ...
