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| economic growth in the long run: Understanding Long-Run Economic Growth Dora L. Costa, Naomi R. Lamoreaux, 2011-10 The conditions for sustainable growth and development are among the most debated topics in economics, and the consensus is that institutions matter greatly in explaining why some economies are more successful than others over time. This book explores the relationship between economic conditions, growth, and inequality. |
| economic growth in the long run: Long-Run Economic Growth Steven Durlauf, John F. Helliwell, Baldev Raj, 2012-12-06 One of the most enduring questions in economics involves how a nation could accelerate the pace of its economic development. One of the most enduring answers to this question is to promote exports -either because doing so directly influences development via encouraging production of goods for export, or because export promotion permits accumulation of foreign exchange which permits importation of high-quality goods and services, which can in turn be used to expand the nation's production possibilities. In either case, growth is said to be export-led; the latter case is the so-called two-gap hypothesis (McKinnon, 1964; Findlay, 1973). The early work on export-led growth consisted of static cross-country com parisons (Michaely, 1977; Balassa, 1978; Tyler, 1981; Kormendi and Meguire, 1985). These studies generally concluded that there is strong evidence in favour of export-led growth because export growth and income growth are highly correlated. However, Kravis pointed out in 1970 that the question is an essen tially dynamic one: as he put it, are exports the handmaiden or the engine of growth? To make this determination one needs to look at time series to see whether or not exports are driving income. This approach has been taken in a number of papers (Jung and Marshall, 1985; Chow, 1987; Serletis, 1992; Kunst and Marin, 1989; Marin, 1992; Afxentiou and Serletis, 1991), designed to assess whether or not individual countries exhibit statistically significant evidence of export-led growth using Granger causality tests. |
| economic growth in the long run: Development Centre Studies Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run Maddison Angus, 1998-09-25 The study provides a major reassessment of the scale and scope of China’s resurgence over the past half century, employing quantitative measurement techniques which are standard practice in OECD countries, but which have not hitherto been available for China. |
| economic growth in the long run: Physioeconomics Philip M. Parker, 2000 He presents evidence that long-run growth can be attributed to variances in hypothalmic activity.--BOOK JACKET. |
| economic growth in the long run: Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth Stanley L. Engerman, Robert E. Gallman, 1986-12-01 These classic studies of the history of economic change in 19th- and 20th-century United States, Canada, and British West Indies examine national product; capital stock and wealth; and fertility, health, and mortality. A 'must have' in the library of the serious economic historian.—Samuel Bostaph, Southern Economic Journal |
| economic growth in the long run: Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth Ross Levine, 1999 March 1996 Is there a strong empirical association between stock market development and long-term economic growth? Cross-country regressions suggest that there is a positive and robust association. Levine and Zervos empirically evaluate the relationship between stock market development and long-term growth. The data suggest that stock market development is positively associated with economic growth. Moreover, instrumental variables procedures indicate a strong connection between the predetermined component of stock market development and economic growth in the long run. While cross-country regressions imply a strong link between stock market development and economic growth, the results should be viewed as suggestive partial correlations that stimulate additional research rather than as conclusive findings. Much work remains to be done to shed light on the relationship between stock market development and economic growth. Careful case studies might help identify causal relationships and further research could be done on the time-series property of such relationships. Research should also be done to identify policies that facilitate the development of sound securities markets. This paper -- a product of the Finance and Private Sector Development Division, Policy Research Department -- is part of a larger effort in the department to study the relationship between financial systems and economic growth. The study was funded by the Bank's Research Support Budget under the research project Stock Market Development and Financial Intermediary Growth2 (RPO 679-53). |
| economic growth in the long run: Global Productivity Alistair Dieppe, 2021-06-09 The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD |
| economic growth in the long run: Economic Growth David N. Weil, 2012-06-29 Why are some countries rich and others poor? David N. Weil, one of the top researchers in economic growth, introduces students to the latest theoretical tools, data, and insights underlying this pivotal question. By showing how empirical data relate to new and old theoretical ideas, Economic Growth provides readers with a complete introduction to the discipline and the latest research. |
| economic growth in the long run: Economic Growth in Latin America Mr.Jose De Gregorio, 1991-07-01 This paper studies growth determinants in 12 Latin American countries during the period 1950-85. In a simple growth accounting framework, the share of labor in income is found to be lower in the sample group than in developed countries, while factor productivity growth accounts for a larger proportion of growth in the fastest growing countries in the sample. Using panel data, macroeconomic stability is found to play, in addition to investment (physical and human), a crucial role in growth. To a lesser extent, growth is negatively correlated with government consumption and political instability. The terms of trade appear to have no significant effect on growth. |
| economic growth in the long run: Energy, Economic Growth, and Geopolitical Futures Evan Hillebrand, Stacy Closson, 2015-03-27 Top-drawer scenario builders map a unique array of 'big picture' global outcomes shaped by energy prices, economic growth, and global harmony. Better still, they give the reader tools to build her own scenarios. An essential reference for experts concerned with geopolitical and geoeconomic futures. -- Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Reginald Jones Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics The way the authors have integrated the International Futures model into scenario analysis is very instructive and amounts to a useful methodological contribution to the literature on scenario analysis. As an energy economist, I also appreciate that the book adds to the usual energy market forecasting exercises that take economic growth as exogenous to the energy markets and ignore political factors. -- Peter Hartley, Mitchell Professor of Economics and Rice Scholar in Energy Studies at the Baker Institute, Rice University Evan Hillebrand and Stacy Closson have written an interesting and original book in which they analyze several different scenarios for economic growth, energy prices, and international conflict over the next forty years in an engaging and accessible style. I recommend this book to anyone who wishes to understand the range of possible futures. -- James Morrow, Professor of Political Science, University of Michigan |
| economic growth in the long run: Financial Structure and Economic Growth Aslı Demirgüç-Kunt, Ross Levine, 2001 CD-ROM contains: World Bank data. |
| economic growth in the long run: Long-Term Macroeconomic Effects of Climate Change: A Cross-Country Analysis Matthew E. Kahn, Mr.Kamiar Mohaddes, Ryan N. C. Ng, M. Hashem Pesaran, Mr.Mehdi Raissi, Jui-Chung Yang, 2019-10-11 We study the long-term impact of climate change on economic activity across countries, using a stochastic growth model where labor productivity is affected by country-specific climate variables—defined as deviations of temperature and precipitation from their historical norms. Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation. Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by more than 7 percent by 2100. On the other hand, abiding by the Paris Agreement, thereby limiting the temperature increase to 0.01°C per annum, reduces the loss substantially to about 1 percent. These effects vary significantly across countries depending on the pace of temperature increases and variability of climate conditions. We also provide supplementary evidence using data on a sample of 48 U.S. states between 1963 and 2016, and show that climate change has a long-lasting adverse impact on real output in various states and economic sectors, and on labor productivity and employment. |
| economic growth in the long run: Human Capital and Economic Growth Alberto Bucci, Klaus Prettner, Alexia Prskawetz, 2019-11-26 This edited collection explores the links between human capital (both in the form of health and in the form of education), demographic change, and economic growth. Using empirical as well as theoretical perspectives, the authors investigate several important issues in the context of human capital, namely population ageing, inequality, public policy, and long-term economic development. Ultimately, they demonstrate that the accumulation of human capital is of crucial importance to long-run economic growth. |
| economic growth in the long run: The 4% Solution The Bush Institute, 2012-07-17 Foreword by President George W. Bush With contributions from world renowned economists and Nobel prizewinners, The 4% Solution is a blueprint for restoring America’s economic health The United States is reaching a pivotal point in its economic history. Millions of Americans owe more on their homes than they are worth, long-term unemployment is alarmingly high, and the Congressional Budget Office is projecting a sustainable growth rate of only 2.3%—a full percentage point below the average for the past sixty years. Unless a turnaround comes quickly, the United States could be mired in debt for years to come and millions of Americans will be pushed to the sidelines of the economy. The 4% Solution offers clear and unflinching ideas on how to revive America’s economy. It sets a positive economic goal and asks some of the top economic minds on how to achieve it. With a focus on removing government constraints, The 4% Solution defines the policies that will allow Americans to save, invest, and create the jobs that the United States needs. The 4% Solution draws on the best minds in the business, including five Nobel laureates: · Robert E. Lucas, Jr., on the history and future of economic growth · Gary S. Becker on why we need immigrants in order to grow · Edward Prescott on the cost (to growth) of the welfare state · Vernon Smith on why housing leads us into and out of recessions · Myron Scholes on why we need to innovate in order to grow the economy |
| economic growth in the long run: The Knowledge Capital of Nations Eric A. Hanushek, Ludger Woessmann, 2023-08-15 A rigorous, pathbreaking analysis demonstrating that a country's prosperity is directly related in the long run to the skills of its population. In this book Eric Hanushek and Ludger Woessmann make a simple, central claim, developed with rigorous theoretical and empirical support: knowledge is the key to a country's development. Of course, every country acknowledges the importance of developing human capital, but Hanushek and Woessmann argue that message has become distorted, with politicians and researchers concentrating not on valued skills but on proxies for them. The common focus is on school attainment, although time in school provides a very misleading picture of how skills enter into development. Hanushek and Woessmann contend that the cognitive skills of the population—which they term the “knowledge capital” of a nation—are essential to long-run prosperity. Hanushek and Woessmann subject their hypotheses about the relationship between cognitive skills (as consistently measured by international student assessments) and economic growth to a series of tests, including alternate specifications, different subsets of countries, and econometric analysis of causal interpretations. They find that their main results are remarkably robust, and equally applicable to developing and developed countries. They demonstrate, for example, that the “Latin American growth puzzle” and the “East Asian miracle” can be explained by these regions' knowledge capital. Turning to the policy implications of their argument, they call for an education system that develops effective accountability, promotes choice and competition, and provides direct rewards for good performance. |
| economic growth in the long run: Human Capital and Regional Development in Europe Claude Diebolt, Ralph Hippe, 2022-01-07 Human capital is of utmost importance for the future of our knowledge economies and societies. However, it is unequally distributed in Europe, contributing to marked spatial patterns of economic prosperity within and across countries. In many cases, these patterns have a long history. To understand them better, it requires to go back in time, when mass schooling was starting to become a reality across Europe. Taking a long-run perspective over more than 150 years, this book shows the development and the distribution of human capital in the regions of Europe and its connections with the economy. It provides insights into recent research findings in this area, including theoretical advances and the use of new empirical data. |
| economic growth in the long run: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World Courtney C. Coile, Kevin Milligan, David A. Wise, 2019-12-12 In developed countries, men’s labor force participation at older ages has increased in recent years, reversing a decades-long pattern of decline. Participation rates for older women have also been rising. What explains these patterns, and the differences in them across countries? The answers to these questions are pivotal as countries face fiscal and retirement security challenges posed by longer life-spans. This eighth phase of the International Social Security project, which compares the social security and retirement experiences of twelve developed countries, documents trends in participation and employment and explores reasons for the rising participation rates of older workers. The chapters use a common template for analysis, which facilitates comparison of results across countries. Using within-country natural experiments and cross-country comparisons, the researchers study the impact of improving health and education, changes in the occupation mix, the retirement incentives of social security programs, and the emergence of women in the workplace, on labor markets. The findings suggest that social security reforms and other factors such as the movement of women into the labor force have played an important role in labor force participation trends. |
| economic growth in the long run: Foreign Exchange Value of the Dollar , 1984 |
| economic growth in the long run: Economic Analysis and Infrastructure Investment Edward L. Glaeser, James M. Poterba, 2021-11-11 Policy-makers often call for expanding public spending on infrastructure, which includes a broad range of investments from roads and bridges to digital networks that will expand access to high-speed broadband. Some point to near-term macro-economic benefits and job creation, others focus on long-term effects on productivity and economic growth. This volume explores the links between infrastructure spending and economic outcomes, as well as key economic issues in the funding and management of infrastructure projects. It draws together research studies that describe the short-run stimulus effects of infrastructure spending, develop new estimates of the stock of U.S. infrastructure capital, and explore the incentive aspects of public-private partnerships (PPPs). A salient issue is the treatment of risk in evaluating publicly-funded infrastructure projects and in connection with PPPs. The goal of the volume is to provide a reference for researchers seeking to expand research on infrastructure issues, and for policy-makers tasked with determining the appropriate level of infrastructure spending-- |
| economic growth in the long run: The Future of Productivity OECD, 2015-12-11 This book addresses the rising productivity gap between the global frontier and other firms, and identifies a number of structural impediments constraining business start-ups, knowledge diffusion and resource allocation (such as barriers to up-scaling and relatively high rates of skill mismatch). |
| economic growth in the long run: Principles Ray Dalio, 2018-08-07 #1 New York Times Bestseller “Significant...The book is both instructive and surprisingly moving.” —The New York Times Ray Dalio, one of the world’s most successful investors and entrepreneurs, shares the unconventional principles that he’s developed, refined, and used over the past forty years to create unique results in both life and business—and which any person or organization can adopt to help achieve their goals. In 1975, Ray Dalio founded an investment firm, Bridgewater Associates, out of his two-bedroom apartment in New York City. Forty years later, Bridgewater has made more money for its clients than any other hedge fund in history and grown into the fifth most important private company in the United States, according to Fortune magazine. Dalio himself has been named to Time magazine’s list of the 100 most influential people in the world. Along the way, Dalio discovered a set of unique principles that have led to Bridgewater’s exceptionally effective culture, which he describes as “an idea meritocracy that strives to achieve meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical transparency.” It is these principles, and not anything special about Dalio—who grew up an ordinary kid in a middle-class Long Island neighborhood—that he believes are the reason behind his success. In Principles, Dalio shares what he’s learned over the course of his remarkable career. He argues that life, management, economics, and investing can all be systemized into rules and understood like machines. The book’s hundreds of practical lessons, which are built around his cornerstones of “radical truth” and “radical transparency,” include Dalio laying out the most effective ways for individuals and organizations to make decisions, approach challenges, and build strong teams. He also describes the innovative tools the firm uses to bring an idea meritocracy to life, such as creating “baseball cards” for all employees that distill their strengths and weaknesses, and employing computerized decision-making systems to make believability-weighted decisions. While the book brims with novel ideas for organizations and institutions, Principles also offers a clear, straightforward approach to decision-making that Dalio believes anyone can apply, no matter what they’re seeking to achieve. Here, from a man who has been called both “the Steve Jobs of investing” and “the philosopher king of the financial universe” (CIO magazine), is a rare opportunity to gain proven advice unlike anything you’ll find in the conventional business press. |
| economic growth in the long run: Prospects for Economic Growth in the United States John W. Diamond, George R. Zodrow, 2021 This volume brings together a distinguished group of world-renowned economists to explore the challenges of maintaining vigorous economic growth in the United States, including issues related to demographics, social insurance programs, technological progress, human capital accumulation, immigration, income inequality, financial institutions, and fiscal policy. The volume consists of a set of papers that were presented at a conference on the Prospects for Economic Growth in the United States, which was one of a series of events celebrating the 25th anniversary of Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy. The conference was sponsored by the Baker Institute's Center for Public Finance and held at Rice on December 6-7, 2018-- |
| economic growth in the long run: Growth and Structural Transformation Kwang Suk Kim, Michael Roemer, 2020-03-17 This study provides a comprehensive overview of Korea’s macroeconomic growth and structural change since World War II, and traces some of the roots of development to the colonial period. The authors explore in detail colonial development, changing national income patterns, relative price shifts, sources of aggregate growth, and sources of sectoral structural change, comparing them with other countries. |
| economic growth in the long run: The Next Convergence Michael Spence, 2011-05-10 A Washington Post Notable Nonfiction Book for 2011 With the British Industrial Revolution, part of the world's population started to experience extraordinary economic growth—leading to enormous gaps in wealth and living standards between the industrialized West and the rest of the world. This pattern of divergence reversed after World War II, and now we are midway through a century of high and accelerating growth in the developing world and a new convergence with the advanced countries—a trend that is set to reshape the world. Michael Spence, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences, explains what happened to cause this dramatic shift in the prospects of the five billion people who live in developing countries. The growth rates are extraordinary, and continuing them presents unprecedented challenges in governance, international coordination, and ecological sustainability. The implications for those living in the advanced countries are great but little understood. Spence clearly and boldly describes what's at stake for all of us as he looks ahead to how the global economy will develop over the next fifty years. The Next Convergence is certain to spark a heated debate how best to move forward in the post-crisis period and reset the balance between national and international economic interests, and short-term fixes and long-term sustainability. |
| economic growth in the long run: The Economic Growth Engine Robert U. Ayres, Benjamin Warr, 2010-01-01 It gives me great pleasure to review this important book. I recommend it highly to any physicist with an interest or curiosity about this economy thing within which we operate. . . There is no excuse not to get this invaluable volume onto your bookshelf. Simon Roberts, Institute of Physics Energy Group This book addresses a very important topic, namely economic growth analysis from the angle of energy and material flows. The treatment is well balanced in terms of research and interpretation of the broader literature. The book not only contains a variety of empirical indicators, statistical analyses and insights, but also offers an unusually complete and pluralistic view on theorizing about economic growth and technological change. This results in a number of refreshing perspectives on known ideas and literatures. The text is so attractively written that I found it very difficult to stop reading. All in all, this is a very original and important contribution to the everlasting debate on growth versus environment. Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh, University of Barcelona, Spain and Free University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Would you want your great-grandchildren in 2100AD to have a 22nd-century industrial economy? If so, read this book to grasp how strongly wealth depends on energy and its efficient use. Start treating fossil energy not as continuing income, but as one-time energy capital to spend on efficiency and long-term sustainable energy production. Otherwise, your descendants will inherit a broken 20th-century economy that only worked with cheap fossil fuels. They will not be rich and they will wonder what their ancestors were thinking. John R. Mashey, PhD, former Chief Scientist, Silicon Graphics Current economic theory attributes most income growth to technical progress. However, since technical progress can neither be defined nor measured, no one really knows what policies will encourage income growth. Ayres and Warr show that access to useful work, which can be defined and measured, explain the bulk of post-1900 income changes in Japan, Britain and the USA. They see rising real prices for fossil fuel and stagnating efficiencies of converting raw energy into useful work as a threat to continued income growth. This brilliant and original work has profound policy implications for future income growth without significant improvements in energy conversion efficiency. Thomas Casten, Chairman, Recycled Energy Development LLC Following the up-and-down energy shock of 2008, Ayres and Warr offer a unique analysis critical to our economic future. They argue that useful work produced by energy and energy services is far more important to overall GDP growth than conventional economic theory assumes. Their new theory, based on extensive empirical and theoretical analysis, has important implications for economists, businessmen and policymakers for anybody concerned with our economic future. Ayres and Warr argue persuasively that economic growth is not only endogenous but has been driven for the past two centuries largely by the declining effective cost of energy. If their new theory is correct, the inevitable future rise of the real cost of energy (beyond the $147 oil price peak in July 2008), could halt economic growth in the US and other advanced countries unless we dramatically improve energy with technology. J. Paul Horne, independent international market economist The historic link between output (GDP) growth and employment has weakened. Since there is no quantitively verifiable economic theory to explain past growth, this unique book explores the fundamental relationship between thermodynamics (physical work) and economics. The authors take a realistic approach to explaining the relationship between technological progress, thermodynamic efficiency and economic growth. Their findings are a step toward the integration of neo-classical and evolutionary perspectives on endogenous economic growth, concluding in a fundam |
| economic growth in the long run: History of the Future of Economic Growth Iris Borowy, Matthias Schmelzer, 2017-02-24 The future of economic growth is one of the decisive questions of the twenty-first century. Alarmed by declining growth rates in industrialized countries, climate change, and rising socio-economic inequalities, among other challenges, more and more people demand to look for alternatives beyond growth. However, so far these current debates about sustainability, post-growth or degrowth lack a thorough historical perspective. This edited volume brings together original contributions on different aspects of the history of economic growth as a central and near-ubiquitous tenet of developmental strategies. The book addresses the origins and evolution of the growth paradigm from the seventeenth century up to the present day and also looks at sustainable development, sustainable growth, and degrowth as examples of alternative developmental models. By focusing on the mixed legacy of growth, both as a major source of expanded life expectancies and increased comfort, and as a destructive force harming personal livelihoods and threatening entire societies in the future, the editors seek to provide historical depth to the ongoing discussion on suitable principles of present and future global development. History of the Future of Economic Growth is aimed at students and academics in environmental, social, economic and international history, political science, environmental studies, and economics, as well as those interested in ongoing discussions about growth, sustainable development, degrowth, and, more generally, the future. |
| economic growth in the long run: Understanding Long-Run Economic Growth Dora L. Costa, Naomi R. Lamoreaux, 2011-08-10 The conditions for sustainable growth and development are among the most debated topics in economics, and the consensus is that institutions matter greatly in explaining why some economies are more successful than others over time. Probing the long-term effects of early colonial differences on immigration policy, land distribution, and financial development in a variety of settings, Understanding Long-Run Economic Growth explores the relationship between economic conditions, growth, and inequality, with a focus on how the monopolization of resources by the political elite limits incentives for ordinary people to invest in human capital or technological discovery. Among the topics discussed are the development of credit markets in France, the evolution of transportation companies in the United Kingdom and the United States, and the organization of innovation in the United States. |
| economic growth in the long run: History of the American Economy Gary M.. Walton, Hugh Rockoff, 2009-06-01 Tying America's past to the economic policies of today and beyond, HISTORY OF THE AMERICAN ECONOMY, 11e, INTERNATIONAL EDITION presents events chronologically for easy understanding. Get a firm foundation in the evolution of the American economy with this ever-popular classic. |
| economic growth in the long run: The Rise and Fall of American Growth Robert J. Gordon, 2017-08-29 How America's high standard of living came to be and why future growth is under threat In the century after the Civil War, an economic revolution improved the American standard of living in ways previously unimaginable. Electric lighting, indoor plumbing, motor vehicles, air travel, and television transformed households and workplaces. But has that era of unprecedented growth come to an end? Weaving together a vivid narrative, historical anecdotes, and economic analysis, The Rise and Fall of American Growth challenges the view that economic growth will continue unabated, and demonstrates that the life-altering scale of innovations between 1870 and 1970 cannot be repeated. Gordon contends that the nation's productivity growth will be further held back by the headwinds of rising inequality, stagnating education, an aging population, and the rising debt of college students and the federal government, and that we must find new solutions. A critical voice in the most pressing debates of our time, The Rise and Fall of American Growth is at once a tribute to a century of radical change and a harbinger of tougher times to come. |
| economic growth in the long run: Economic Growth Robert J. Barro, Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995 Why do economies grow? What fixes the long-run rate of growth? These are some of the simplest, but also hardest, questions in economics. Growth of lack of it has huge consequences for a country's citizens. But for various reasons, growth theory has had long fallow patches. Happily, this is changing. In 1956 Robert Solow developed what became the standard neo-classical model of economic growth. Counties grow, on this theory, by accumulating labour and capital. Adding either obeys diminishing returns: the more labour or capital you already have, the more you need for a further given jump in output. One consequence is that an economy with less capital ought to outgrow one with more. Generally, they do. Another is that growth should eventually drop to zero. Awkwardly, it stays positive. To save the theory, long-run growth was explained by an outside factor, technical innovation, which is not in the growth function itself—hence the label exogenous for the Solow family of models. Partial as it was, the Solow model won wide acceptance and growth theory slumbered for three decades. Then came two changes. One was an attempt to add technical change and other factors to labour and capital within the growth function so that the model might predict long-run growth without leaning on outside residuals—the so-called endogenous approach. The other was a huge number of factual studies. Barro and Sala-i-Martin explain all this and more with admirable clarity (and much demanding maths) in the first modern textbook devoted to growth theory. The main theories are examined. The stress throughout is on linking theory to fact. One of three chapters on empirical work suggests how much each of several possible factors would be needed to explain differing international growth rate—not an explanation itself, but an indispensable set of empirical benchmarks. From The Economist, 17 February 1996 |
| economic growth in the long run: Stubborn Attachments Tyler Cowen , 2018-10-16 From a bestselling author and economist, a contemporary moral case for economic growth—and a dose of inspiration and optimism about our future possibilities. Growth is good. Through history, economic growth, in particular, has alleviated human misery, improved human happiness and opportunity, and lengthened human lives. Wealthier societies are more stable, offer better living standards, produce better medicines, and ensure greater autonomy, greater fulfillment, and more sources of fun. If we want to continue on our trends of growth, and the overwhelmingly positive outcomes for societies that come with it, every individual must become more concerned with the welfare of those around us. So, how do we proceed? Tyler Cowen, in a culmination of 20 years of thinking and research, provides a roadmap for moving forward. In this new book, Stubborn Attachments: A Vision for a Society of Free, Prosperous, and Responsible Individuals, Cowen argues that our reason and common sense can help free us of the faulty ideas that hold us back as people and as a society. Stubborn Attachments, at its heart, makes the contemporary moral case for economic growth and delivers a great dose of inspiration and optimism about our future possibilities. As a means of practicing the altruism that Stubborn Attachments argues for, Tyler Cowen is donating all earnings from this book to a man he met in Ethiopia earlier this year with aspirations to open his own travel business. |
| economic growth in the long run: Productivity, Technology and Economic Growth Bart van Ark, Simon K. Kuipers, Gerard H. Kuper, 2013-03-09 Productivity, Technology and Economic Growth presents a selection of recent research advances on long term economic growth. While the contributions stem from both economic history, macro- and microeconomics and the economics of innovation, all papers depart from a common viewpoint: the key factor behind long term growth is productivity, and the latter is primarily driven by technological change. Most contributions show implicitly or explicitly that technological change is at least partly dependent on growth itself. Furthermore, technology appears to interact strongly with investment in physical and human capital as well as with changes in historical, political and institutional settings. Together these papers are an up-to-date account of the remarkable convergence in theoretical and empirical work on productivity and growth over the past decades. The first part deals with the characteristics of growth regimes over longer periods, ranging from 20 years to two centuries. The next four chapters study the determinants of productivity growth and, in some cases, productivity slowdown during the last quarter of the twentieth century. The final five chapters focus on the role of technology and innovation as the key determinants of growth. Productivity, Technology and Economic Growth is, therefore, a welcome collection for academic scholars and graduate students in economics, history and related social sciences as well as for policy makers. |
| economic growth in the long run: Economic Growth, second edition Robert J. Barro, Xavier I. Sala-I-Martin, 2003-10-10 The long-awaited second edition of an important textbook on economic growth—a major revision incorporating the most recent work on the subject. This graduate level text on economic growth surveys neoclassical and more recent growth theories, stressing their empirical implications and the relation of theory to data and evidence. The authors have undertaken a major revision for the long-awaited second edition of this widely used text, the first modern textbook devoted to growth theory. The book has been expanded in many areas and incorporates the latest research. After an introductory discussion of economic growth, the book examines neoclassical growth theories, from Solow-Swan in the 1950s and Cass-Koopmans in the 1960s to more recent refinements; this is followed by a discussion of extensions to the model, with expanded treatment in this edition of heterogenity of households. The book then turns to endogenous growth theory, discussing, among other topics, models of endogenous technological progress (with an expanded discussion in this edition of the role of outside competition in the growth process), technological diffusion, and an endogenous determination of labor supply and population. The authors then explain the essentials of growth accounting and apply this framework to endogenous growth models. The final chapters cover empirical analysis of regions and empirical evidence on economic growth for a broad panel of countries from 1960 to 2000. The updated treatment of cross-country growth regressions for this edition uses the new Summers-Heston data set on world income distribution compiled through 2000. |
| economic growth in the long run: The Fourth Industrial Revolution Klaus Schwab, 2017-01-03 World-renowned economist Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum, explains that we have an opportunity to shape the fourth industrial revolution, which will fundamentally alter how we live and work. Schwab argues that this revolution is different in scale, scope and complexity from any that have come before. Characterized by a range of new technologies that are fusing the physical, digital and biological worlds, the developments are affecting all disciplines, economies, industries and governments, and even challenging ideas about what it means to be human. Artificial intelligence is already all around us, from supercomputers, drones and virtual assistants to 3D printing, DNA sequencing, smart thermostats, wearable sensors and microchips smaller than a grain of sand. But this is just the beginning: nanomaterials 200 times stronger than steel and a million times thinner than a strand of hair and the first transplant of a 3D printed liver are already in development. Imagine “smart factories” in which global systems of manufacturing are coordinated virtually, or implantable mobile phones made of biosynthetic materials. The fourth industrial revolution, says Schwab, is more significant, and its ramifications more profound, than in any prior period of human history. He outlines the key technologies driving this revolution and discusses the major impacts expected on government, business, civil society and individuals. Schwab also offers bold ideas on how to harness these changes and shape a better future—one in which technology empowers people rather than replaces them; progress serves society rather than disrupts it; and in which innovators respect moral and ethical boundaries rather than cross them. We all have the opportunity to contribute to developing new frameworks that advance progress. |
| economic growth in the long run: Inflation Crises and Long-run Growth Michael Bruno, William Easterly, 1995 Recent literature suggests that long-run averages of growth and inflation are only weakly correlated and such correlation is not robust to exclusion of extreme inflation observations; inclusion of time series panel data has improved matters, but an aggregate parametric approach remains inconclusive. We propose a nonparametric definition of high inflation crises as periods when inflation is above 40 percent annually. Excluding countries with high inflation crises, we find no evidence of any consistent relationship between growth and inflation at any frequency. However, we find that growth falls sharply during discrete high inflation crises, then recovers surprisingly strongly after inflation falls. The fall in growth during crisis and recovery of growth after crisis tend to average out to close to zero (even slightly above zero), hence the lack of a robust cross-section correlation. Our findings could be consistent either with trend stationarity of output, in which inflation crises are purely cyclical phenomena, or with models in which crises have a favorable long-run purgative effect. Our findings do not support the view that reduction of high inflation carries heavy short-to-medium run output costs. |
| economic growth in the long run: The Limits to Growth Donella H. Meadows, 1972 Examines the factors which limit human economic and population growth and outlines the steps necessary for achieving a balance between population and production. Bibliogs |
| economic growth in the long run: Wage-Led Growth Engelbert Stockhammer, 2013-12-03 This volume seeks to go beyond the microeconomic view of wages as a cost having negative consequences on a given firm, to consider the positive macroeconomic dynamics associated with wages as a major component of aggregate demand. |
| economic growth in the long run: The Budget and Economic Outlook , 2008 |
| economic growth in the long run: The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Committee on National Statistics, Panel on the Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration, 2017-07-13 The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration finds that the long-term impact of immigration on the wages and employment of native-born workers overall is very small, and that any negative impacts are most likely to be found for prior immigrants or native-born high school dropouts. First-generation immigrants are more costly to governments than are the native-born, but the second generation are among the strongest fiscal and economic contributors in the U.S. This report concludes that immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S. More than 40 million people living in the United States were born in other countries, and almost an equal number have at least one foreign-born parent. Together, the first generation (foreign-born) and second generation (children of the foreign-born) comprise almost one in four Americans. It comes as little surprise, then, that many U.S. residents view immigration as a major policy issue facing the nation. Not only does immigration affect the environment in which everyone lives, learns, and works, but it also interacts with nearly every policy area of concern, from jobs and the economy, education, and health care, to federal, state, and local government budgets. The changing patterns of immigration and the evolving consequences for American society, institutions, and the economy continue to fuel public policy debate that plays out at the national, state, and local levels. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration assesses the impact of dynamic immigration processes on economic and fiscal outcomes for the United States, a major destination of world population movements. This report will be a fundamental resource for policy makers and law makers at the federal, state, and local levels but extends to the general public, nongovernmental organizations, the business community, educational institutions, and the research community. |
| economic growth in the long run: Agenda for the Nation Henry Aaron, James M. Lindsay, Pietro S. Nivola, 2003-07-29 More powerful and affluent today than ever, the United States has promising opportunities to influence the course of history. Yet these prospects are shadowed by significant perils and burdens. In this visionary book, leading scholars from the Brookings Institution and other prominent research organizations and universities analyze the major domestic and foreign policy problems facing the nation over the next five to ten years. The challenges on the domestic front are formidable: assuring fair but affordable access to health care, shoring up retirement income for an aging population, encouraging long-term economic growth, easing the growing pains of an increasingly diverse society, and reconciling energy policies with environmental concerns. In international affairs the central task is to use America's unprecedented power wisely and to protect a homeland that has been revealed as surprisingly vulnerable. Yet efforts must also focus on improving the economic fortunes of poorer countries, expanding trade, and reforming the rules that regulate the flows of capital across national borders. Is the United States government capable of rising to these vast and varied challenges? The concluding chapters of this book offer cautious optimism. While it is often criticized, the American political system is fundamentally resilient and flexible. Ambitious in scope, Agenda for the Nation provides thoughtful, constructive answers to questions of how the U.S. government can effectively serve its citizens and meet its global responsibilities in a world of opportunity and uncertainty. |
LECTURE 15 Long-run Economic Growth - University of …
Long-Run Outcomes •In the short run (in recessions and booms), the economy’s use of its available resources can be above or below normal; this is central to short-run fluctuations. •In …
Understanding Long-Run Economic Growth: Geography, …
way to a quarter century of unprecedented economic growth that would raise standards of living, health, and life expectancy for ordinary people to levels that few would have predicted (Crafts …
Long-Run Economic Growth
In this chapter look for the answers for the following questions: What are the facts about living standards and growth rates around the world? Why does productivity matter for living …
Solow Growth Model - University at Albany
Solow sets up a mathematical model of long-run economic growth. He assumes full employment of capital and labor. Given assumptions about population growth, saving, technology, he works …
Infrastructure and Long Run Economic Growth - Cornell …
Abstract: We investigate the long run consequences of infrastructure provision on per capita income in a panel of countries over the period 1950-1992.
Economic Growth in the Long- run - rzeidan.com
Long-run growth stems from potential growth, or the efficient use of resources. The supply side of the economy is more important. Innovation, new industries, and human capital are the key …
The Determinants of Long-Run Economic Growth: An …
What are the determinants of long-run economic growth, and how is this growth achieved? This paper examines the factors influencing economic growth measured by GDP1 per capita using …
Savings and Economic Growth - Yale Department of Economics
Savings and Economic Growth Question: How does the savings rate affect the long-run average growth rate of a country? We will answer this question using a very simple aggregate (or …
An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth …
Dec 16, 2019 · This paper develops a probability model of the joint growth of national per-capita GDP, estimated using up to 118 years of data on 113 countries. The premise of this exercise …
Economic growth In the long run
Further we have the growth of formal schooling in every region from illiteracy to universal primary schooling, near universal secondary schooling and rising attendance in higher education. 4 …
Economic Growth over the Very Long Run - web.stanford.edu
Jones, Charles I., “Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run,” Advances in Macroeconomics, 2001, 1 (2), Article 1. …
Long-Run Economic Growth
How do we implement growth accounting? Measure ∆Yt/Yt−1, ∆Kt/Kt−1, ∆Nt/Nt−1 directly from the data. Most measures for the growth rate of inputs include quality adjustments, as inputs …
Long-Run Economic Growth - delong.typepad.com
What are the causes of long-run economic growth — that is, of sustained and significant growth in an economy's level of output per worker? What is the "efficiency of labor"? What is an …
Growing, Shrinking, and Long Run Economic Performance: …
Using annual data from the thirteenth century to the present, we show that improved long run economic performance has occurred primarily through a decline in the rate and frequency of …
US Economic Growth is Over: The Short Run Meets the Long …
U.S. real GDP growth has grown at a turtle-like pace of only 2.1 percent per year in the last four years, despite a rapid decline in the unemployment rate from 10 to 6 percent.
LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH: SOURCES AND POLICIES
In this chapter, we will consider the effects of different government policies on long-term economic growth. Economic growth, after all, is not inevitable; history has seen long periods of …
Economic Growth in Macroeconomic Models - Fairfax County …
Long-run economic growth is the sustained rise in the quantity of goods and services the economy produces, as opposed to the short-run ups and downs of the business cycle.
What Determines Economic Growth? - Dallas Fed
According to traditional growth theory, the main determinants of long-run economic growth are not influenced by economic incentives. Recently, however, the study of eco-nomic growth has …
Long-Run Economic Growth
Oct 15, 2015 · Determinants of Long -Run Economic Growth How much output of goods and services an economy can produce depends on the amount of inputs it has – its capital and …
LECTURE 15 Long-run Economic Growth - University of …
Long-Run Outcomes •In the short run (in recessions and booms), the economy’s use of its available resources can be above or below normal; this is central to short-run fluctuations. •In …
The Facts of Economic Growth - Stanford University
Questions such as these define the field of economic growth. This paper documents the facts that underlie these questions. How much richer are we today than 100 years ago, and how large …
Understanding Long-Run Economic Growth: Geography, …
way to a quarter century of unprecedented economic growth that would raise standards of living, health, and life expectancy for ordinary people to levels that few would have predicted (Crafts …
Long-Run Economic Growth
In this chapter look for the answers for the following questions: What are the facts about living standards and growth rates around the world? Why does productivity matter for living …
Solow Growth Model - University at Albany
Solow sets up a mathematical model of long-run economic growth. He assumes full employment of capital and labor. Given assumptions about population growth, saving, technology, he works …
Infrastructure and Long Run Economic Growth - Cornell …
Abstract: We investigate the long run consequences of infrastructure provision on per capita income in a panel of countries over the period 1950-1992.
Economic Growth in the Long- run - rzeidan.com
Long-run growth stems from potential growth, or the efficient use of resources. The supply side of the economy is more important. Innovation, new industries, and human capital are the key …
The Determinants of Long-Run Economic Growth: An …
What are the determinants of long-run economic growth, and how is this growth achieved? This paper examines the factors influencing economic growth measured by GDP1 per capita using …
Savings and Economic Growth - Yale Department of Economics
Savings and Economic Growth Question: How does the savings rate affect the long-run average growth rate of a country? We will answer this question using a very simple aggregate (or …
An Econometric Model of International Long-run Growth …
Dec 16, 2019 · This paper develops a probability model of the joint growth of national per-capita GDP, estimated using up to 118 years of data on 113 countries. The premise of this exercise …
Economic growth In the long run
Further we have the growth of formal schooling in every region from illiteracy to universal primary schooling, near universal secondary schooling and rising attendance in higher education. 4 …
Economic Growth over the Very Long Run - web.stanford.edu
Jones, Charles I., “Was an Industrial Revolution Inevitable? Economic Growth Over the Very Long Run,” Advances in Macroeconomics, 2001, 1 (2), Article 1. …
Long-Run Economic Growth
How do we implement growth accounting? Measure ∆Yt/Yt−1, ∆Kt/Kt−1, ∆Nt/Nt−1 directly from the data. Most measures for the growth rate of inputs include quality adjustments, as inputs …
Long-Run Economic Growth - delong.typepad.com
What are the causes of long-run economic growth — that is, of sustained and significant growth in an economy's level of output per worker? What is the "efficiency of labor"? What is an …
Growing, Shrinking, and Long Run Economic Performance: …
Using annual data from the thirteenth century to the present, we show that improved long run economic performance has occurred primarily through a decline in the rate and frequency of …
US Economic Growth is Over: The Short Run Meets the Long …
U.S. real GDP growth has grown at a turtle-like pace of only 2.1 percent per year in the last four years, despite a rapid decline in the unemployment rate from 10 to 6 percent.
LONG-RUN ECONOMIC GROWTH: SOURCES AND POLICIES
In this chapter, we will consider the effects of different government policies on long-term economic growth. Economic growth, after all, is not inevitable; history has seen long periods of …
Economic Growth in Macroeconomic Models - Fairfax …
Long-run economic growth is the sustained rise in the quantity of goods and services the economy produces, as opposed to the short-run ups and downs of the business cycle.
What Determines Economic Growth? - Dallas Fed
According to traditional growth theory, the main determinants of long-run economic growth are not influenced by economic incentives. Recently, however, the study of eco-nomic growth has …
Long-Run Economic Growth
Oct 15, 2015 · Determinants of Long -Run Economic Growth How much output of goods and services an economy can produce depends on the amount of inputs it has – its capital and …
