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| base rate fallacy psychology: Judgment Under Uncertainty Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, Amos Tversky, 1982-04-30 Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Contributions to Mathematical Psychology, Psychometrics, and Methodology Gerhard H. Fischer, Donald Laming, 1993-12-17 Contributions to Mathematical Psychology, Psycho§ metrics and Methodology presents the most esteemed research findings of the 22nd European Mathematical Psychology Group meeting in Vienna, Austria, September 1991. The selection of work appearing in this volume contains not only contributions to mathematical psychology in the narrow sense, but also work in psychometrics and methodology, with the common element of all contributions being their attempt to deal with scientific problems in psychology with rigorous mathematics reasoning. The book contains 28 chapters divided into five parts: Perception, Learning, and Cognition; Choice and Reaction Time; Social Systems; Measurement and Psychometrics; and Methodology. It is of interest to all mathematical psychologists, educational psychologists, and graduate students in these areas. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Encyclopedia of Child Behavior and Development Sam Goldstein, Jack A. Naglieri, 2010-11-23 This reference work breaks new ground as an electronic resource. Utterly comprehensive, it serves as a repository of knowledge in the field as well as a frequently updated conduit of new material long before it finds its way into standard textbooks. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Cognitive Illusions Rüdiger F Pohl, 2016-07-22 Cognitive Illusions explores a wide range of fascinating psychological effects in the way we think, judge and remember in our everyday lives. Featuring contributions from leading researchers, the book defines what cognitive illusions are and discusses their theoretical status: are such illusions proof for a faulty human information-processing system, or do they only represent by-products of otherwise adaptive cognitive mechanisms? Throughout the book, background to phenomena such as illusions of control, overconfidence and hindsight bias are discussed, before considering the respective empirical research, potential explanations of the phenomenon, and relevant applied perspectives. Each chapter also features the detailed description of an experiment that can be used as classroom demonstration. Featuring six new chapters, this edition has been thoroughly updated throughout to reflect recent research and changes of focus within the field. This book will be of interest to students and researchers of cognitive illusions, specifically, those focusing on thinking, reasoning, decision-making and memory. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Cognitive Strategies in Stochastic Thinking Roland W. Scholz, 2012-12-06 |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Logically Fallacious Bo Bennett, 2012-02-19 This book is a crash course in effective reasoning, meant to catapult you into a world where you start to see things how they really are, not how you think they are. The focus of this book is on logical fallacies, which loosely defined, are simply errors in reasoning. With the reading of each page, you can make significant improvements in the way you reason and make decisions. Logically Fallacious is one of the most comprehensive collections of logical fallacies with all original examples and easy to understand descriptions, perfect for educators, debaters, or anyone who wants to improve his or her reasoning skills. Expose an irrational belief, keep a person rational for a day. Expose irrational thinking, keep a person rational for a lifetime. - Bo Bennett This 2021 Edition includes dozens of more logical fallacies with many updated examples. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Statistics Done Wrong Alex Reinhart, 2015-03-01 Scientific progress depends on good research, and good research needs good statistics. But statistical analysis is tricky to get right, even for the best and brightest of us. You'd be surprised how many scientists are doing it wrong. Statistics Done Wrong is a pithy, essential guide to statistical blunders in modern science that will show you how to keep your research blunder-free. You'll examine embarrassing errors and omissions in recent research, learn about the misconceptions and scientific politics that allow these mistakes to happen, and begin your quest to reform the way you and your peers do statistics. You'll find advice on: –Asking the right question, designing the right experiment, choosing the right statistical analysis, and sticking to the plan –How to think about p values, significance, insignificance, confidence intervals, and regression –Choosing the right sample size and avoiding false positives –Reporting your analysis and publishing your data and source code –Procedures to follow, precautions to take, and analytical software that can help Scientists: Read this concise, powerful guide to help you produce statistically sound research. Statisticians: Give this book to everyone you know. The first step toward statistics done right is Statistics Done Wrong. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Behavioral Decision Theory E. C. Poulton, 1994-09-30 The book describes the errors that people commonly make in dealing with probabilities. They include both the errors that are now well recognised like overconfidence, and the errors that investigators may themselves introduce without realising it. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 Shane Parrish, Rhiannon Beaubien, 2024-10-15 Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Psychology of Intelligence Analysis Richards J Heuer, 2020-03-05 In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped (poorly wired) to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Cognitive Illusions Rüdiger F Pohl, 2012-12-06 Cognitive Illusions investigates a wide range of fascinating psychological effects in the way we think, judge and remember in our everyday lives. At the beginning of each chapter, leading researchers in the field introduce the background to phenomena such as illusions of control, overconfidence and hindsight bias. This is followed by an explanation of the experimental context in which these illusions can be investigated and a theoretical discussion drawing conclusions about the wider implications of these fallacy and bias effects. Written with researchers and instructors in mind, this tightly edited, reader-friendly text provides both an overview of research in the area and many lively pedagogic features such as chapter summaries, further reading lists and suggestions for classroom demonstrations. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Thinking, Fast and Slow Daniel Kahneman, 2011-10-25 *Major New York Times Bestseller *More than 2.6 million copies sold *One of The New York Times Book Review's ten best books of the year *Selected by The Wall Street Journal as one of the best nonfiction books of the year *Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient *Daniel Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's best-selling The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, world-famous psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Topping bestseller lists for almost ten years, Thinking, Fast and Slow is a contemporary classic, an essential book that has changed the lives of millions of readers. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, 2 Volume Set Gideon Keren, George Wu, 2016-02-16 A comprehensive, up-to-date examination of the most important theory, concepts, methodological approaches, and applications in the burgeoning field of judgment and decision making (JDM) Emphasizes the growth of JDM applications with chapters devoted to medical decision making, decision making and the law, consumer behavior, and more Addresses controversial topics from multiple perspectives – such as choice from description versus choice from experience – and contrasts between empirical methodologies employed in behavioral economics and psychology Brings together a multi-disciplinary group of contributors from across the social sciences, including psychology, economics, marketing, finance, public policy, sociology, and philosophy 2 Volumes |
| base rate fallacy psychology: A Crisis of Beliefs Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, 2018-09-11 How investor expectations move markets and the economy The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 caught markets and regulators by surprise. Although the government rushed to rescue other financial institutions from a similar fate after Lehman, it could not prevent the deepest recession in postwar history. A Crisis of Beliefs makes us rethink the financial crisis and the nature of economic risk. In this authoritative and comprehensive book, two of today’s most insightful economists reveal how our beliefs shape financial markets, lead to expansions of credit and leverage, and expose the economy to major risks. Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer carefully walk readers through the unraveling of Lehman Brothers and the ensuing meltdown of the US financial system, and then present new evidence to illustrate the destabilizing role played by the beliefs of home buyers, investors, and regulators. Using the latest research in psychology and behavioral economics, they present a new theory of belief formation that explains why the financial crisis came as such a shock to so many people—and how financial and economic instability persist. A must-read for anyone seeking insights into financial markets, A Crisis of Beliefs shows how even the smartest market participants and regulators did not fully appreciate the extent of economic risk, and offers a new framework for understanding today’s unpredictable financial waters. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Introduction to Modern Epidemiology Anders Ahlbom, Staffan Norell, 1990 |
| base rate fallacy psychology: The Cambridge Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning Keith J. Holyoak, Robert G. Morrison, 2005-04-18 The Cambridge Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning is the first comprehensive and authoritative handbook covering all the core topics of the field of thinking and reasoning. Written by the foremost experts from cognitive psychology, cognitive science, and cognitive neuroscience, individual chapters summarize basic concepts and findings for a major topic, sketch its history, and give a sense of the directions in which research is currently heading. The volume also includes work related to developmental, social and clinical psychology, philosophy, economics, artificial intelligence, linguistics, education, law, and medicine. Scholars and students in all these fields and others will find this to be a valuable collection. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Preference, Belief, and Similarity Amos Tversky, 2003-11-21 Amos Tversky (1937–1996), a towering figure in cognitive and mathematical psychology, devoted his professional life to the study of similarity, judgment, and decision making. He had a unique ability to master the technicalities of normative ideals and then to intuit and demonstrate experimentally their systematic violation due to the vagaries and consequences of human information processing. He created new areas of study and helped transform disciplines as varied as economics, law, medicine, political science, philosophy, and statistics. This book collects forty of Tversky's articles, selected by him in collaboration with the editor during the last months of Tversky's life. It is divided into three sections: Similarity, Judgment, and Preferences. The Preferences section is subdivided into Probabilistic Models of Choice, Choice under Risk and Uncertainty, and Contingent Preferences. Included are several articles written with his frequent collaborator, Nobel Prize-winning economist Daniel Kahneman. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making Derek J. Koehler, Nigel Harvey, 2008-04-15 The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in the study of how people make evaluations, draw inferences, and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and conflict. Contains contributions by experts from various disciplines that reflect current trends and controversies on judgment and decision making. Provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making and portrays the major findings in the field. Presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making. Explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: The Handbook of Behavioral Operations Karen Donohue, Elena Katok, Stephen Leider, 2018-11-06 A comprehensive review of behavioral operations management that puts the focus on new and trending research in the field The Handbook of Behavioral Operations offers a comprehensive resource that fills the gap in the behavioral operations management literature. This vital text highlights best practices in behavioral operations research and identifies the most current research directions and their applications. A volume in the Wiley Series in Operations Research and Management Science, this book contains contributions from an international panel of scholars from a wide variety of backgrounds who are conducting behavioral research. The handbook provides succinct tutorials on common methods used to conduct behavioral research, serves as a resource for current topics in behavioral operations research, and as a guide to the use of new research methods. The authors review the fundamental theories and offer frameworks from a psychological, systems dynamics, and behavioral economic standpoint. They provide a crucial grounding for behavioral operations as well as an entry point for new areas of behavioral research. The handbook also presents a variety of behavioral operations applications that focus on specific areas of study and includes a survey of current and future research needs. This important resource: Contains a summary of the methodological foundations and in-depth treatment of research best practices in behavioral research. Provides a comprehensive review of the research conducted over the past two decades in behavioral operations, including such classic topics as inventory management, supply chain contracting, forecasting, and competitive sourcing. Covers a wide-range of current topics and applications including supply chain risk, responsible and sustainable supply chain, health care operations, culture and trust. Connects existing bodies of behavioral operations literature with related fields, including psychology and economics. Provides a vision for future behavioral research in operations. Written for academicians within the operations management community as well as for behavioral researchers, The Handbook of Behavioral Operations offers a comprehensive resource for the study of how individuals make decisions in an operational context with contributions from experts in the field. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Basic Problems in Methodology and Linguistics Robert E. Butts, Jaakko Hintikka, 2013-04-17 The Fifth International Congress of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science was held at the University of Western Ontario, London, Canada, 27 August to 2 September 1975. The Congress was held under the auspices of the International Union of History and Philosophy of Science, Division of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science, and was sponsored by the National Research Council of Canada and the University of Western Ontario. As those associated closely with the work of the Division over the years know well, the work undertaken by its members varies greatly and spans a number of fields not always obviously related. In addition, the volume of work done by first rate scholars and scientists in the various fields of the Division has risen enormously. For these and related reasons it seemed to the editors chosen by the Divisional officers that the usual format of publishing the proceedings of the Congress be abandoned in favour of a somewhat more flexible, and hopefully acceptable, method of pre sentation. Accordingly, the work of the invited participants to the Congress has been divided into four volumes appearing in the University of Western Ontario Series in Philosophy of Science. The volumes are entitled, Logic, Foundations of Mathematics and Computability Theory, Foun dational Problems in the Special Sciences, Basic Problems in Methodol ogy and Linguistics, and Historical and Philosophical Dimensions of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Detection of Malingering during Head Injury Litigation Cecil R. Reynolds, 2013-03-09 Neuropsychologists and forensic psychologists have long lacked a systematic, scientific means of assessing head injury cases, of distinguishing those plaintiffs whose pain and suffering is real and deserves just compensation from those who are simply faking it. Cecil R. Reynolds and his expert contributors provide the first definitive work on this subject, focusing on problems that beset clinicians who are called upon to evaluate head injuries in civil courts. They describe the major malingering detection techniques currently in use. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Cognitive Biases in Visualizations Geoffrey Ellis, 2018-09-27 This book brings together the latest research in this new and exciting area of visualization, looking at classifying and modelling cognitive biases, together with user studies which reveal their undesirable impact on human judgement, and demonstrating how visual analytic techniques can provide effective support for mitigating key biases. A comprehensive coverage of this very relevant topic is provided though this collection of extended papers from the successful DECISIVe workshop at IEEE VIS, together with an introduction to cognitive biases and an invited chapter from a leading expert in intelligence analysis. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations will be of interest to a wide audience from those studying cognitive biases to visualization designers and practitioners. It offers a choice of research frameworks, help with the design of user studies, and proposals for the effective measurement of biases. The impact of human visualization literacy, competence and human cognition on cognitive biases are also examined, as well as the notion of system-induced biases. The well referenced chapters provide an excellent starting point for gaining an awareness of the detrimental effect that some cognitive biases can have on users’ decision-making. Human behavior is complex and we are only just starting to unravel the processes involved and investigate ways in which the computer can assist, however the final section supports the prospect that visual analytics, in particular, can counter some of the more common cognitive errors, which have been proven to be so costly. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: The Optimism Bias Tali Sharot, 2011-06-14 Psychologists have long been aware that most people maintain an irrationally positive outlook on life—but why? Turns out, we might be hardwired that way. In this absorbing exploration, Tali Sharot—one of the most innovative neuroscientists at work today—demonstrates that optimism may be crucial to human existence. The Optimism Bias explores how the brain generates hope and what happens when it fails; how the brains of optimists and pessimists differ; why we are terrible at predicting what will make us happy; how emotions strengthen our ability to recollect; how anticipation and dread affect us; how our optimistic illusions affect our financial, professional, and emotional decisions; and more. Drawing on cutting-edge science, The Optimism Bias provides us with startling new insight into the workings of the brain and the major role that optimism plays in determining how we live our lives. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Progress in Social Psychology Martin Fishbein, 2015-06-19 Originally published in 1980, this title was the first of a new monograph series in social psychology. The editor presents a format for showing the progress of social psychology as a viable, exciting and relevant discipline. The papers contained in this volume represent progress in theory and method as well as in basic and applied research. In addition, recognising that not all social psychology is produced by people who label themselves as ‘social psychologists’ the volume contains the contributions of scholars who are best known for their work in other areas. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Rationality and Decision Making Marek Hetmański, 2018 Rationality and Decision Making: From Normative Rules to Heuristics' offers a broad overview of both classic and very recent discussions concerning rationality and strategies of individual and group decision making. They are considered from a methodological, ethical, sociological, historical, cultural as well as an evolutionary perspective. Decision making, both rational and irrational, is treated in its complexity as an algorithmic, heuristic and intuitive process. The volume analyzes the theoretical and practical aspects of decision making in individual intentional endeavors and group or institutionalized undertakings. The analyses are mostly theoretical but they also appeal to empirical studies, proposed by philosophers and cognitive scientists who have studied logical, cognitive, biological, social and evolutionary aspects of human rationality. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: The Cult of Smart Fredrik deBoer, 2020-08-04 Named one of Vulture’s Top 10 Best Books of 2020! Leftist firebrand Fredrik deBoer exposes the lie at the heart of our educational system and demands top-to-bottom reform. Everyone agrees that education is the key to creating a more just and equal world, and that our schools are broken and failing. Proposed reforms variously target incompetent teachers, corrupt union practices, or outdated curricula, but no one acknowledges a scientifically-proven fact that we all understand intuitively: Academic potential varies between individuals, and cannot be dramatically improved. In The Cult of Smart, educator and outspoken leftist Fredrik deBoer exposes this omission as the central flaw of our entire society, which has created and perpetuated an unjust class structure based on intellectual ability. Since cognitive talent varies from person to person, our education system can never create equal opportunity for all. Instead, it teaches our children that hierarchy and competition are natural, and that human value should be based on intelligence. These ideas are counter to everything that the left believes, but until they acknowledge the existence of individual cognitive differences, progressives remain complicit in keeping the status quo in place. This passionate, voice-driven manifesto demands that we embrace a new goal for education: equality of outcomes. We must create a world that has a place for everyone, not just the academically talented. But we’ll never achieve this dream until the Cult of Smart is destroyed. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Heuristics and Biases Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman, 2002-07-08 This book, first published in 2002, compiles psychologists' best attempts to answer important questions about intuitive judgment. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Spurious Correlations Tyler Vigen, 2015-05-12 Spurious Correlations ... is the most fun you'll ever have with graphs. -- Bustle Military intelligence analyst and Harvard Law student Tyler Vigen illustrates the golden rule that correlation does not equal causation through hilarious graphs inspired by his viral website. Is there a correlation between Nic Cage films and swimming pool accidents? What about beef consumption and people getting struck by lightning? Absolutely not. But that hasn't stopped millions of people from going to tylervigen.com and asking, Wait, what? Vigen has designed software that scours enormous data sets to find unlikely statistical correlations. He began pulling the funniest ones for his website and has since gained millions of views, hundreds of thousands of likes, and tons of media coverage. Subversive and clever, Spurious Correlations is geek humor at its finest, nailing our obsession with data and conspiracy theory. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Staying Alive in Avalanche Terrain Bruce Tremper, 2001 Winter recreation in the mountains has increased steadily over the past few years, and so has the number of deaths and injuries caused by avalanches. Staying Alive in Avalanche Terrain covers everything you need to know to avoid trouble in avalanche terrain: what avalanches are and how they work, common myths, human activities that lead to avalanche trouble, what happens to victims when an avalanche occurs, and rescue techniques. Provides step- by-step instruction for determining avalanche hazards, using safe travel technique, and making effective rescues. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Experimental Business Research Rami Zwick, Amnon Rapoport, 2007-02-26 This is one of the few titles that brings together studies that adopt laboratory based experimental economics methods to study an array of business and policy issues, spanning the entire business domain, including accounting, economics, management, marketing and cognitive science. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Assessing Mathematical Proficiency Alan H. Schoenfeld, 2007-05-21 Testing matters! It can determine kids' and schools' futures. In a conference at the Mathematical Sciences Research Institute, mathematicians, maths education researchers, teachers, test developers, and policymakers gathered to work through critical issues related to mathematics assessment. They examined: the challenges of assessing student learning in ways that support instructional improvement; ethical issues related to assessment, including the impact of testing on urban and high-poverty schools; the different (and sometimes conflicting) needs of the different groups; and different frameworks, tools, and methods for assessment, comparing the kinds of information they offer about students' mathematical proficiency. This volume presents the results of the discussions. It highlights the kinds of information that different assessments can offer, including many examples of some of the best mathematics assessments worldwide. A special feature is an interview with a student about his knowledge of fractions and a demonstration of what interviews (versus standardized tests) can reveal. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: How to Take a Chance Darrell Huff, 1978 |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Handbook of Behavioral Economics - Foundations and Applications 2 , 2019-01-29 Handbook of Behavioral Economics, Volume 2, Foundations and Applications offers critical perspectives on theoretical work within behavioral economics, delivering a comprehensive, critical, up-to-date, and accessible review of the field that has always been missing. This literature summary of the conceptual foundations underlying behavioral economics is written by, and for, economists, with chapters covering Intertemporal choice, Reference-dependent preferences, Beliefs, Cognition, Social preferences, Behavioral game theory, Welfare, and Neuroeconomics. - Helps academic and non-academic economists understand recent rapid changes in theoretical advances within behavioral economics - Designed for economists already convinced of the benefits of behavioral economics and mainstream economists who feel threatened by new developments in behavioral economics - Written for those who wish to become quickly acquainted with behavioral economics |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Elicitation of Preferences Baruch Fischhoff, Charles F. Manski, 2013-03-14 Economists and psychologists have, on the whole, exhibited sharply different perspectives on the elicitation of preferences. Economists, who have made preference the central primitive in their thinking about human behavior, have for the most part rejected elicitation and have instead sought to infer preferences from observations of choice behavior. Psychologists, who have tended to think of preference as a context-determined subjective construct, have embraced elicitation as their dominant approach to measurement. This volume, based on a symposium organized by Daniel McFadden at the University of California at Berkeley, provides a provocative and constructive engagement between economists and psychologists on the elicitation of preferences. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Similarity and Analogical Reasoning Stella Vosniadou, Andrew Ortony, 1989 Similarity and analogy are fundamental in human cognition. They are crucial for recognition and classification, and have been associated with scientific discovery and creativity. Any adequate understanding of similarity and analogy requires the integration of theory and data from diverse domains. This interdisciplinary volume explores current development in research and theory from psychological, computational, and educational perspectives, and considers their implications for learning and instruction. The distinguished contributors examine the psychological processes involved in reasoning by similarity and analogy, the computational problems encountered in simulating analogical processing in problem solving, and the conditions promoting the application of analogical reasoning in everyday situations. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Reducing Underage Drinking Institute of Medicine, National Research Council, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Board on Children, Youth, and Families, Committee on Developing a Strategy to Reduce and Prevent Underage Drinking, 2004-03-26 Alcohol use by young people is extremely dangerous - both to themselves and society at large. Underage alcohol use is associated with traffic fatalities, violence, unsafe sex, suicide, educational failure, and other problem behaviors that diminish the prospects of future success, as well as health risks †and the earlier teens start drinking, the greater the danger. Despite these serious concerns, the media continues to make drinking look attractive to youth, and it remains possible and even easy for teenagers to get access to alcohol. Why is this dangerous behavior so pervasive? What can be done to prevent it? What will work and who is responsible for making sure it happens? Reducing Underage Drinking addresses these questions and proposes a new way to combat underage alcohol use. It explores the ways in which may different individuals and groups contribute to the problem and how they can be enlisted to prevent it. Reducing Underage Drinking will serve as both a game plan and a call to arms for anyone with an investment in youth health and safety. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Encyclopedia of Animal Cognition and Behavior Jennifer Vonk, Todd Shackelford, 2022-04-01 This encyclopedia, representing one of the most multi-disciplinary areas of research, is a comprehensive examination of the key areas in animal cognition and behavior. It will serve as a complementary resource to the handbooks and journals that have emerged in the last decade on this topic, and will be a useful resource for student and researcher alike. With comprehensive coverage of this field, key concepts will be explored. These include social cognition, prey and predator detection, habitat selection, mating and parenting, development, genetics, physiology, memory, learning and perception. Attention is also given to animal-human co-evolution and interaction, and animal welfare. All entries are under the purview of acknowledged experts in the field. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Cognitive-Experiential Theory Seymour Epstein, 2014 In this book, Epstein presents a new theory of personality, referred to as cognitive-experiential theory (CET), that is integrative of all other major personality theories. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: Thinking and Deciding Jonathan Baron, 2006-10-22 Beginning with its first edition and through subsequent editions, Thinking and Deciding has established itself as the required text and important reference work for students and scholars of human cognition and rationality. In this fourth edition, first published in 2007, Jonathan Baron retains the comprehensive attention to the key questions addressed in the previous editions - how should we think? What, if anything, keeps us from thinking that way? How can we improve our thinking and decision making? - and his expanded treatment of topics such as risk, utilitarianism, Baye's theorem, and moral thinking. With the student in mind, the fourth edition emphasises the development of an understanding of the fundamental concepts in judgement and decision making. This book is essential reading for students and scholars in judgement and decision making and related fields, including psychology, economics, law, medicine, and business. |
| base rate fallacy psychology: OECD Glossary of Statistical Terms OECD, 2008-09-01 The OECD Glossary contains a comprehensive set of over 6 700 definitions of key terminology, concepts and commonly used acronyms derived from existing international statistical guidelines and recommendations. |
BASE Definition & Meaning - Merriam-Webster
The meaning of BASE is the bottom of something considered as its support : foundation. How to use base in a sentence. Synonym Discussion of Base.
BASE (Bielefeld Academic Search Engine): Basic Search
More than 400 mio. scientific documents from more than 11.000 content providers. BASE is one of the world's most voluminous search engines for academic web resources.
Base Definition & Meaning | Britannica Dictionary
BASE meaning: 1 : the bottom or lowest part of something the part on which something rests or is supported usually singular often used figuratively; 2 : something (such as a group of people or …
BASE definition in American English | Collins English Dictionary
A base is a system of counting and expressing numbers. The decimal system uses base 10, and the binary system uses base 2.
BASE | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
BASE definition: 1. the bottom part of an object, on which it rests, or the lowest part of something: 2. the main…. Learn more.
Base - definition of base by The Free Dictionary
The lowest or bottom part: the base of a cliff; the base of a lamp. 2. Biology. a. The part of a plant or animal organ that is nearest to its point of attachment. b. The point of attachment of such an …
BASE | English meaning - Cambridge Essential American
BASE definition: 1. the bottom part of something: 2. the main place where a person lives or works, or from where he…. Learn more.
Base Definition & Meaning - YourDictionary
Base definition: The lowest or bottom part.
Base | Definition, Examples, & Facts | Britannica
Base, in chemistry, any substance that in water solution is slippery to the touch, tastes bitter, changes the color of indicators (e.g., turns red litmus paper blue), reacts with acids to form …
base noun - Definition, pictures, pronunciation and usage notes ...
Definition of base noun in Oxford Advanced American Dictionary. Meaning, pronunciation, picture, example sentences, grammar, usage notes, synonyms and more.
BASE Definition & Meaning - Merriam-Webster
The meaning of BASE is the bottom of something considered as its support : foundation. How to use base in a sentence. Synonym Discussion of Base.
BASE (Bielefeld Academic Search Engine): Basic Search
More than 400 mio. scientific documents from more than 11.000 content providers. BASE is one of the world's most voluminous search engines for academic web resources.
Base Definition & Meaning | Britannica Dictionary
BASE meaning: 1 : the bottom or lowest part of something the part on which something rests or is supported usually singular often used figuratively; 2 : something (such as a group of people or …
BASE definition in American English | Collins English Dictionary
A base is a system of counting and expressing numbers. The decimal system uses base 10, and the binary system uses base 2.
BASE | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
BASE definition: 1. the bottom part of an object, on which it rests, or the lowest part of something: 2. the main…. Learn more.
Base - definition of base by The Free Dictionary
The lowest or bottom part: the base of a cliff; the base of a lamp. 2. Biology. a. The part of a plant or animal organ that is nearest to its point of attachment. b. The point of attachment of such an …
BASE | English meaning - Cambridge Essential American
BASE definition: 1. the bottom part of something: 2. the main place where a person lives or works, or from where he…. Learn more.
Base Definition & Meaning - YourDictionary
Base definition: The lowest or bottom part.
Base | Definition, Examples, & Facts | Britannica
Base, in chemistry, any substance that in water solution is slippery to the touch, tastes bitter, changes the color of indicators (e.g., turns red litmus paper blue), reacts with acids to form …
base noun - Definition, pictures, pronunciation and usage notes ...
Definition of base noun in Oxford Advanced American Dictionary. Meaning, pronunciation, picture, example sentences, grammar, usage notes, synonyms and more.
