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| base rate neglect psychology: Cognitive Illusions Rüdiger F Pohl, 2016-07-22 Cognitive Illusions explores a wide range of fascinating psychological effects in the way we think, judge and remember in our everyday lives. Featuring contributions from leading researchers, the book defines what cognitive illusions are and discusses their theoretical status: are such illusions proof for a faulty human information-processing system, or do they only represent by-products of otherwise adaptive cognitive mechanisms? Throughout the book, background to phenomena such as illusions of control, overconfidence and hindsight bias are discussed, before considering the respective empirical research, potential explanations of the phenomenon, and relevant applied perspectives. Each chapter also features the detailed description of an experiment that can be used as classroom demonstration. Featuring six new chapters, this edition has been thoroughly updated throughout to reflect recent research and changes of focus within the field. This book will be of interest to students and researchers of cognitive illusions, specifically, those focusing on thinking, reasoning, decision-making and memory. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Encyclopedia of Child Behavior and Development Sam Goldstein, Jack A. Naglieri, 2010-11-23 This reference work breaks new ground as an electronic resource. Utterly comprehensive, it serves as a repository of knowledge in the field as well as a frequently updated conduit of new material long before it finds its way into standard textbooks. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Contributions to Mathematical Psychology, Psychometrics, and Methodology Gerhard H. Fischer, Donald Laming, 1993-12-17 Contributions to Mathematical Psychology, Psycho§ metrics and Methodology presents the most esteemed research findings of the 22nd European Mathematical Psychology Group meeting in Vienna, Austria, September 1991. The selection of work appearing in this volume contains not only contributions to mathematical psychology in the narrow sense, but also work in psychometrics and methodology, with the common element of all contributions being their attempt to deal with scientific problems in psychology with rigorous mathematics reasoning. The book contains 28 chapters divided into five parts: Perception, Learning, and Cognition; Choice and Reaction Time; Social Systems; Measurement and Psychometrics; and Methodology. It is of interest to all mathematical psychologists, educational psychologists, and graduate students in these areas. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Judgment Under Uncertainty Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, Amos Tversky, 1982-04-30 Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Cognitive Illusions Rüdiger F Pohl, 2012-12-06 Cognitive Illusions investigates a wide range of fascinating psychological effects in the way we think, judge and remember in our everyday lives. At the beginning of each chapter, leading researchers in the field introduce the background to phenomena such as illusions of control, overconfidence and hindsight bias. This is followed by an explanation of the experimental context in which these illusions can be investigated and a theoretical discussion drawing conclusions about the wider implications of these fallacy and bias effects. Written with researchers and instructors in mind, this tightly edited, reader-friendly text provides both an overview of research in the area and many lively pedagogic features such as chapter summaries, further reading lists and suggestions for classroom demonstrations. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Statistics Done Wrong Alex Reinhart, 2015-03-01 Scientific progress depends on good research, and good research needs good statistics. But statistical analysis is tricky to get right, even for the best and brightest of us. You'd be surprised how many scientists are doing it wrong. Statistics Done Wrong is a pithy, essential guide to statistical blunders in modern science that will show you how to keep your research blunder-free. You'll examine embarrassing errors and omissions in recent research, learn about the misconceptions and scientific politics that allow these mistakes to happen, and begin your quest to reform the way you and your peers do statistics. You'll find advice on: –Asking the right question, designing the right experiment, choosing the right statistical analysis, and sticking to the plan –How to think about p values, significance, insignificance, confidence intervals, and regression –Choosing the right sample size and avoiding false positives –Reporting your analysis and publishing your data and source code –Procedures to follow, precautions to take, and analytical software that can help Scientists: Read this concise, powerful guide to help you produce statistically sound research. Statisticians: Give this book to everyone you know. The first step toward statistics done right is Statistics Done Wrong. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Logically Fallacious Bo Bennett, 2012-02-19 This book is a crash course in effective reasoning, meant to catapult you into a world where you start to see things how they really are, not how you think they are. The focus of this book is on logical fallacies, which loosely defined, are simply errors in reasoning. With the reading of each page, you can make significant improvements in the way you reason and make decisions. Logically Fallacious is one of the most comprehensive collections of logical fallacies with all original examples and easy to understand descriptions, perfect for educators, debaters, or anyone who wants to improve his or her reasoning skills. Expose an irrational belief, keep a person rational for a day. Expose irrational thinking, keep a person rational for a lifetime. - Bo Bennett This 2021 Edition includes dozens of more logical fallacies with many updated examples. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Behavioral Decision Theory E. C. Poulton, 1994-09-30 The book describes the errors that people commonly make in dealing with probabilities. They include both the errors that are now well recognised like overconfidence, and the errors that investigators may themselves introduce without realising it. |
| base rate neglect psychology: The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, 2 Volume Set Gideon Keren, George Wu, 2016-02-16 A comprehensive, up-to-date examination of the most important theory, concepts, methodological approaches, and applications in the burgeoning field of judgment and decision making (JDM) Emphasizes the growth of JDM applications with chapters devoted to medical decision making, decision making and the law, consumer behavior, and more Addresses controversial topics from multiple perspectives – such as choice from description versus choice from experience – and contrasts between empirical methodologies employed in behavioral economics and psychology Brings together a multi-disciplinary group of contributors from across the social sciences, including psychology, economics, marketing, finance, public policy, sociology, and philosophy 2 Volumes |
| base rate neglect psychology: Thinking, Fast and Slow Daniel Kahneman, 2011-10-25 *Major New York Times Bestseller *More than 2.6 million copies sold *One of The New York Times Book Review's ten best books of the year *Selected by The Wall Street Journal as one of the best nonfiction books of the year *Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient *Daniel Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's best-selling The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, world-famous psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Topping bestseller lists for almost ten years, Thinking, Fast and Slow is a contemporary classic, an essential book that has changed the lives of millions of readers. |
| base rate neglect psychology: A Crisis of Beliefs Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, 2018-09-11 How investor expectations move markets and the economy The collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 caught markets and regulators by surprise. Although the government rushed to rescue other financial institutions from a similar fate after Lehman, it could not prevent the deepest recession in postwar history. A Crisis of Beliefs makes us rethink the financial crisis and the nature of economic risk. In this authoritative and comprehensive book, two of today’s most insightful economists reveal how our beliefs shape financial markets, lead to expansions of credit and leverage, and expose the economy to major risks. Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer carefully walk readers through the unraveling of Lehman Brothers and the ensuing meltdown of the US financial system, and then present new evidence to illustrate the destabilizing role played by the beliefs of home buyers, investors, and regulators. Using the latest research in psychology and behavioral economics, they present a new theory of belief formation that explains why the financial crisis came as such a shock to so many people—and how financial and economic instability persist. A must-read for anyone seeking insights into financial markets, A Crisis of Beliefs shows how even the smartest market participants and regulators did not fully appreciate the extent of economic risk, and offers a new framework for understanding today’s unpredictable financial waters. |
| base rate neglect psychology: The Handbook of Behavioral Operations Karen Donohue, Elena Katok, Stephen Leider, 2018-11-06 A comprehensive review of behavioral operations management that puts the focus on new and trending research in the field The Handbook of Behavioral Operations offers a comprehensive resource that fills the gap in the behavioral operations management literature. This vital text highlights best practices in behavioral operations research and identifies the most current research directions and their applications. A volume in the Wiley Series in Operations Research and Management Science, this book contains contributions from an international panel of scholars from a wide variety of backgrounds who are conducting behavioral research. The handbook provides succinct tutorials on common methods used to conduct behavioral research, serves as a resource for current topics in behavioral operations research, and as a guide to the use of new research methods. The authors review the fundamental theories and offer frameworks from a psychological, systems dynamics, and behavioral economic standpoint. They provide a crucial grounding for behavioral operations as well as an entry point for new areas of behavioral research. The handbook also presents a variety of behavioral operations applications that focus on specific areas of study and includes a survey of current and future research needs. This important resource: Contains a summary of the methodological foundations and in-depth treatment of research best practices in behavioral research. Provides a comprehensive review of the research conducted over the past two decades in behavioral operations, including such classic topics as inventory management, supply chain contracting, forecasting, and competitive sourcing. Covers a wide-range of current topics and applications including supply chain risk, responsible and sustainable supply chain, health care operations, culture and trust. Connects existing bodies of behavioral operations literature with related fields, including psychology and economics. Provides a vision for future behavioral research in operations. Written for academicians within the operations management community as well as for behavioral researchers, The Handbook of Behavioral Operations offers a comprehensive resource for the study of how individuals make decisions in an operational context with contributions from experts in the field. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Introduction to Modern Epidemiology Anders Ahlbom, Staffan Norell, 1990 |
| base rate neglect psychology: The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 Shane Parrish, Rhiannon Beaubien, 2024-10-15 Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Detection of Malingering during Head Injury Litigation Cecil R. Reynolds, 2013-03-09 Neuropsychologists and forensic psychologists have long lacked a systematic, scientific means of assessing head injury cases, of distinguishing those plaintiffs whose pain and suffering is real and deserves just compensation from those who are simply faking it. Cecil R. Reynolds and his expert contributors provide the first definitive work on this subject, focusing on problems that beset clinicians who are called upon to evaluate head injuries in civil courts. They describe the major malingering detection techniques currently in use. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Base-rate Neglect Under Direct Experience Adam S. Goodie, 1997 |
| base rate neglect psychology: The Cambridge Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning Keith J. Holyoak, Robert G. Morrison, 2005-04-18 The Cambridge Handbook of Thinking and Reasoning is the first comprehensive and authoritative handbook covering all the core topics of the field of thinking and reasoning. Written by the foremost experts from cognitive psychology, cognitive science, and cognitive neuroscience, individual chapters summarize basic concepts and findings for a major topic, sketch its history, and give a sense of the directions in which research is currently heading. The volume also includes work related to developmental, social and clinical psychology, philosophy, economics, artificial intelligence, linguistics, education, law, and medicine. Scholars and students in all these fields and others will find this to be a valuable collection. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Cognitive Biases in Visualizations Geoffrey Ellis, 2018-09-27 This book brings together the latest research in this new and exciting area of visualization, looking at classifying and modelling cognitive biases, together with user studies which reveal their undesirable impact on human judgement, and demonstrating how visual analytic techniques can provide effective support for mitigating key biases. A comprehensive coverage of this very relevant topic is provided though this collection of extended papers from the successful DECISIVe workshop at IEEE VIS, together with an introduction to cognitive biases and an invited chapter from a leading expert in intelligence analysis. Cognitive Biases in Visualizations will be of interest to a wide audience from those studying cognitive biases to visualization designers and practitioners. It offers a choice of research frameworks, help with the design of user studies, and proposals for the effective measurement of biases. The impact of human visualization literacy, competence and human cognition on cognitive biases are also examined, as well as the notion of system-induced biases. The well referenced chapters provide an excellent starting point for gaining an awareness of the detrimental effect that some cognitive biases can have on users’ decision-making. Human behavior is complex and we are only just starting to unravel the processes involved and investigate ways in which the computer can assist, however the final section supports the prospect that visual analytics, in particular, can counter some of the more common cognitive errors, which have been proven to be so costly. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Basic Problems in Methodology and Linguistics Robert E. Butts, Jaakko Hintikka, 2013-04-17 The Fifth International Congress of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science was held at the University of Western Ontario, London, Canada, 27 August to 2 September 1975. The Congress was held under the auspices of the International Union of History and Philosophy of Science, Division of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science, and was sponsored by the National Research Council of Canada and the University of Western Ontario. As those associated closely with the work of the Division over the years know well, the work undertaken by its members varies greatly and spans a number of fields not always obviously related. In addition, the volume of work done by first rate scholars and scientists in the various fields of the Division has risen enormously. For these and related reasons it seemed to the editors chosen by the Divisional officers that the usual format of publishing the proceedings of the Congress be abandoned in favour of a somewhat more flexible, and hopefully acceptable, method of pre sentation. Accordingly, the work of the invited participants to the Congress has been divided into four volumes appearing in the University of Western Ontario Series in Philosophy of Science. The volumes are entitled, Logic, Foundations of Mathematics and Computability Theory, Foun dational Problems in the Special Sciences, Basic Problems in Methodol ogy and Linguistics, and Historical and Philosophical Dimensions of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science. |
| base rate neglect psychology: The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Economics and the Law Eyal Zamir, Doron Teichman, 2014 'The Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Economics and Law' brings together leading scholars of law, psychology, and economics to provide an up-to-date and comprehensive analysis of this field of research, including its strengths and limitations as well as a forecast of its future development. Its twenty-nine chapters are organized into four parts. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Dual Process Theory 2.0 Wim De Neys, 2017-11-09 Dual Process Theory 2.0 provides a comprehensive overview of the new directions in which dual process research is heading. Human thinking is often characterized as an interplay between intuition and deliberation and this two-headed, dual process view of human thinking has been very influential in the cognitive sciences and popular media. However, despite the popularity of the dual process framework it faces multiple challenges. Recent advances indicate that there is a strong need to re-think some of the fundamental assumptions of the original dual process model. With chapters written by leading scholars who have been actively involved in the development of an upgraded ‘Dual Process Theory 2.0’, this edited volume presents an accessible overview of the latest empirical findings and theoretical ideas.. With cutting edge insights on the interaction between intuition and deliberation, Dual Process Theory 2.0 should be of interest to psychologists, philosophers, and economists who are using dual process models. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Higher Mental Processes Robert W Proctor, 2015-11-30 In this new book, Robert W. Proctor curates a collection of celebrated and seminal articles from the past 125 years of the American Journal of Psychology . The debut volume in the University of Illinois Press TMs Common Threads series, Higher Mental Processes reprints a suite of ten articles on processes of higher-order thinking. Proctor, current editor of the AJP , begins the volume with a special introduction that provides historical and scientific context for the contributions. Contributors: P. Baratta, M. H. Birnbaum, M. E. Bulbrook, L. S. Buyer, R. A. Carlson, S. N. F. Chant, A. A. Cleveland, T. D. Cutsforth, R. L. Dominowski, E. Galanter, P. N. Johnson-Laird, M. G. Preston, Robert W. Proctor, and J. Tagart. |
| base rate neglect psychology: The Rationality Quotient Keith E. Stanovich, Richard F. West, Maggie E. Toplak, 2016-09-30 How to assess critical aspects of cognitive functioning that are not measured by IQ tests: rational thinking skills. Why are we surprised when smart people act foolishly? Smart people do foolish things all the time. Misjudgments and bad decisions by highly educated bankers and money managers, for example, brought us the financial crisis of 2008. Smart people do foolish things because intelligence is not the same as the capacity for rational thinking. The Rationality Quotient explains that these two traits, often (and incorrectly) thought of as one, refer to different cognitive functions. The standard IQ test, the authors argue, doesn't measure any of the broad components of rationality—adaptive responding, good judgment, and good decision making. The authors show that rational thinking, like intelligence, is a measurable cognitive competence. Drawing on theoretical work and empirical research from the last two decades, they present the first prototype for an assessment of rational thinking analogous to the IQ test: the CART (Comprehensive Assessment of Rational Thinking). The authors describe the theoretical underpinnings of the CART, distinguishing the algorithmic mind from the reflective mind. They discuss the logic of the tasks used to measure cognitive biases, and they develop a unique typology of thinking errors. The Rationality Quotient explains the components of rational thought assessed by the CART, including probabilistic and scientific reasoning; the avoidance of “miserly” information processing; and the knowledge structures needed for rational thinking. Finally, the authors discuss studies of the CART and the social and practical implications of such a test. An appendix offers sample items from the test. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Parenting Matters National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, Division of Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, Board on Children, Youth, and Families, Committee on Supporting the Parents of Young Children, 2016-11-21 Decades of research have demonstrated that the parent-child dyad and the environment of the familyâ€which includes all primary caregiversâ€are at the foundation of children's well- being and healthy development. From birth, children are learning and rely on parents and the other caregivers in their lives to protect and care for them. The impact of parents may never be greater than during the earliest years of life, when a child's brain is rapidly developing and when nearly all of her or his experiences are created and shaped by parents and the family environment. Parents help children build and refine their knowledge and skills, charting a trajectory for their health and well-being during childhood and beyond. The experience of parenting also impacts parents themselves. For instance, parenting can enrich and give focus to parents' lives; generate stress or calm; and create any number of emotions, including feelings of happiness, sadness, fulfillment, and anger. Parenting of young children today takes place in the context of significant ongoing developments. These include: a rapidly growing body of science on early childhood, increases in funding for programs and services for families, changing demographics of the U.S. population, and greater diversity of family structure. Additionally, parenting is increasingly being shaped by technology and increased access to information about parenting. Parenting Matters identifies parenting knowledge, attitudes, and practices associated with positive developmental outcomes in children ages 0-8; universal/preventive and targeted strategies used in a variety of settings that have been effective with parents of young children and that support the identified knowledge, attitudes, and practices; and barriers to and facilitators for parents' use of practices that lead to healthy child outcomes as well as their participation in effective programs and services. This report makes recommendations directed at an array of stakeholders, for promoting the wide-scale adoption of effective programs and services for parents and on areas that warrant further research to inform policy and practice. It is meant to serve as a roadmap for the future of parenting policy, research, and practice in the United States. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Handbook of Behavioral Economics - Foundations and Applications 2 , 2019-01-29 Handbook of Behavioral Economics, Volume 2, Foundations and Applications offers critical perspectives on theoretical work within behavioral economics, delivering a comprehensive, critical, up-to-date, and accessible review of the field that has always been missing. This literature summary of the conceptual foundations underlying behavioral economics is written by, and for, economists, with chapters covering Intertemporal choice, Reference-dependent preferences, Beliefs, Cognition, Social preferences, Behavioral game theory, Welfare, and Neuroeconomics. - Helps academic and non-academic economists understand recent rapid changes in theoretical advances within behavioral economics - Designed for economists already convinced of the benefits of behavioral economics and mainstream economists who feel threatened by new developments in behavioral economics - Written for those who wish to become quickly acquainted with behavioral economics |
| base rate neglect psychology: Intuition in Judgment and Decision Making Henning Plessner, Cornelia Betsch, Tilmann Betsch, 2011-05-20 The central goal of this volume is to bring the learning perspective into the discussion of intuition in judgment and decision making. The book gathers recent work on intuitive decision making that goes beyond the current dominant heuristic processing perspective. However, that does not mean that the book will strictly oppose this perspective. The unique perspective of this book will help to tie together these different conceptualizations of intuition and develop an integrative approach to the psychological understanding of intuition in judgment and decision making. Accordingly, some of the chapters reflect prior research from the heuristic processing perspective in the new light of the learning perspective. This book provides a representative overview of what we currently know about intuition in judgment and decision making. The authors provide latest theoretical developments, integrative frameworks and state-of-the-art reviews of research in the laboratory and in the field. Moreover, some chapters deal with applied topics. Intuition in Judgment and Decision Making aims not only at the interest of students and researchers of psychology, but also at scholars from neighboring social and behavioral sciences such as economy, sociology, political sciences, and neurosciences. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Cognitive Psychology Michael W. Eysenck, Mark T. Keane, 2013-09-11 Previous editions have established this best-selling student handbook as THE cognitive psychology textbook of choice, both for its academic rigour and its accessibility. This sixth edition continues this tradition. It has been substantially updated and revised to reflect new developments in the field (especially within cognitive neuroscience). Traditional approaches are combined with the cutting-edge cognitive neuroscience approach to create a comprehensive, coherent and totally up-to-date overview of all the main fields in cognitive psychology. The major topics covered include perception, attention, memory, concepts, language, problem solving, and reasoning, as well as some applied topics such as everyday memory. New to this edition: Presented in full-colour throughout, with numerous colour illustrations including photographs and brain scans Increased emphasis on cognitive neuroscience, to reflect its growing influence on cognitive psychology A NEW chapter on Cognition and Emotion A WHOLE chapter on Consciousness Increased coverage of applied topics such as recovered memories, medical expertise, informal reasoning, and emotion regulation incorporated throughout the textbook More focus on individual differences in areas including long-term memory, expertise, reasoning, emotion and regulation. The textbook is packed full of useful features that will engage students and aid revision, including key terms, which are new to this edition, chapter summaries, and suggestions for further reading. Written by one of the leading textbook authors in psychology, this thorough and user-friendly textbook will continue to be essential reading for all undergraduate students of psychology. Those taking courses in computer science, education, linguistics, physiology, and medicine will also find it an invaluable resource. This edition is accompanied by a rich array of supplementary materials, which will be made available to qualifying adopters completely free of charge. The online multimedia materials include: A PowerPoint lecture course and multiple-choice question test bank A unique Student Learning Program: an interactive revision program incorporating a range of multimedia resources including interactive exercises and demonstrations, and active reference links to journal articles. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Thinking and Deciding Jonathan Baron, 2006-10-22 Beginning with its first edition and through subsequent editions, Thinking and Deciding has established itself as the required text and important reference work for students and scholars of human cognition and rationality. In this fourth edition, first published in 2007, Jonathan Baron retains the comprehensive attention to the key questions addressed in the previous editions - how should we think? What, if anything, keeps us from thinking that way? How can we improve our thinking and decision making? - and his expanded treatment of topics such as risk, utilitarianism, Baye's theorem, and moral thinking. With the student in mind, the fourth edition emphasises the development of an understanding of the fundamental concepts in judgement and decision making. This book is essential reading for students and scholars in judgement and decision making and related fields, including psychology, economics, law, medicine, and business. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Causal Models Steven Sloman, 2005-07-28 Human beings are active agents who can think. To understand how thought serves action requires understanding how people conceive of the relation between cause and effect, between action and outcome. In cognitive terms, how do people construct and reason with the causal models we use to represent our world? A revolution is occurring in how statisticians, philosophers, and computer scientists answer this question. Those fields have ushered in new insights about causal models by thinking about how to represent causal structure mathematically, in a framework that uses graphs and probability theory to develop what are called causal Bayesian networks. The framework starts with the idea that the purpose of causal structure is to understand and predict the effects of intervention. How does intervening on one thing affect other things? This is not a question merely about probability (or logic), but about action. The framework offers a new understanding of mind: Thought is about the effects of intervention and cognition is thus intimately tied to actions that take place either in the actual physical world or in imagination, in counterfactual worlds. The book offers a conceptual introduction to the key mathematical ideas, presenting them in a non-technical way, focusing on the intuitions rather than the theorems. It tries to show why the ideas are important to understanding how people explain things and why thinking not only about the world as it is but the world as it could be is so central to human action. The book reviews the role of causality, causal models, and intervention in the basic human cognitive functions: decision making, reasoning, judgment, categorization, inductive inference, language, and learning. In short, the book offers a discussion about how people think, talk, learn, and explain things in causal terms, in terms of action and manipulation. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making Derek J. Koehler, Nigel Harvey, 2008-04-15 The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in the study of how people make evaluations, draw inferences, and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and conflict. Contains contributions by experts from various disciplines that reflect current trends and controversies on judgment and decision making. Provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making and portrays the major findings in the field. Presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making. Explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Boarding School Syndrome Joy Schaverien, 2015-06-05 Boarding School Syndrome is an analysis of the trauma of the 'privileged' child sent to boarding school at a young age. Innovative and challenging, Joy Schaverien offers a psychological analysis of the long-established British and colonial preparatory and public boarding school tradition. Richly illustrated with pictures and the narratives of adult ex-boarders in psychotherapy, the book demonstrates how some forms of enduring distress in adult life may be traced back to the early losses of home and family. Developed from clinical research and informed by attachment and child development theories ‘Boarding School Syndrome’ is a new term that offers a theoretical framework on which the psychotherapeutic treatment of ex-boarders may build. Divided into four parts, History: In the Name of Privilege; Exile and Healing; Broken Attachments: A Hidden Trauma, and The Boarding School Body, the book includes vivid case studies of ex-boarders in psychotherapy. Their accounts reveal details of the suffering endured: loss, bereavement and captivity are sometimes compounded by physical, sexual and psychological abuse. Here, Joy Schaverien shows how many boarders adopt unconscious coping strategies including dissociative amnesia resulting in a psychological split between the 'home self' and the 'boarding school self'. This pattern may continue into adult life, causing difficulties in intimate relationships, generalized depression and separation anxiety amongst other forms of psychological distress. Boarding School Syndrome demonstrates how boarding school may damage those it is meant to be a reward and discusses the wider implications of this tradition. It will be essential reading for psychoanalysts, Jungian analysts, psychotherapists, art psychotherapists, counsellors and others interested in the psychological, cultural and international legacy of this tradition including ex-boarders and their partners. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Transforming the Workforce for Children Birth Through Age 8 National Research Council, Institute of Medicine, Board on Children, Youth, and Families, Committee on the Science of Children Birth to Age 8: Deepening and Broadening the Foundation for Success, 2015-07-23 Children are already learning at birth, and they develop and learn at a rapid pace in their early years. This provides a critical foundation for lifelong progress, and the adults who provide for the care and the education of young children bear a great responsibility for their health, development, and learning. Despite the fact that they share the same objective - to nurture young children and secure their future success - the various practitioners who contribute to the care and the education of children from birth through age 8 are not acknowledged as a workforce unified by the common knowledge and competencies needed to do their jobs well. Transforming the Workforce for Children Birth Through Age 8 explores the science of child development, particularly looking at implications for the professionals who work with children. This report examines the current capacities and practices of the workforce, the settings in which they work, the policies and infrastructure that set qualifications and provide professional learning, and the government agencies and other funders who support and oversee these systems. This book then makes recommendations to improve the quality of professional practice and the practice environment for care and education professionals. These detailed recommendations create a blueprint for action that builds on a unifying foundation of child development and early learning, shared knowledge and competencies for care and education professionals, and principles for effective professional learning. Young children thrive and learn best when they have secure, positive relationships with adults who are knowledgeable about how to support their development and learning and are responsive to their individual progress. Transforming the Workforce for Children Birth Through Age 8 offers guidance on system changes to improve the quality of professional practice, specific actions to improve professional learning systems and workforce development, and research to continue to build the knowledge base in ways that will directly advance and inform future actions. The recommendations of this book provide an opportunity to improve the quality of the care and the education that children receive, and ultimately improve outcomes for children. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Progress in Social Psychology Martin Fishbein, 2015-06-19 Originally published in 1980, this title was the first of a new monograph series in social psychology. The editor presents a format for showing the progress of social psychology as a viable, exciting and relevant discipline. The papers contained in this volume represent progress in theory and method as well as in basic and applied research. In addition, recognising that not all social psychology is produced by people who label themselves as ‘social psychologists’ the volume contains the contributions of scholars who are best known for their work in other areas. |
| base rate neglect psychology: The Optimism Bias Tali Sharot, 2011-06-14 Psychologists have long been aware that most people maintain an irrationally positive outlook on life—but why? Turns out, we might be hardwired that way. In this absorbing exploration, Tali Sharot—one of the most innovative neuroscientists at work today—demonstrates that optimism may be crucial to human existence. The Optimism Bias explores how the brain generates hope and what happens when it fails; how the brains of optimists and pessimists differ; why we are terrible at predicting what will make us happy; how emotions strengthen our ability to recollect; how anticipation and dread affect us; how our optimistic illusions affect our financial, professional, and emotional decisions; and more. Drawing on cutting-edge science, The Optimism Bias provides us with startling new insight into the workings of the brain and the major role that optimism plays in determining how we live our lives. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Attention and Associative Learning Chris J. Mitchell, Mike E. Le Pelley, 2010 This book brings together leading international learning and attention researchers to provide both a comprehensive and wide-ranging overview of the current state of knowledge of this area as well as new perspectives and directions for the future. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Encyclopedia of Animal Cognition and Behavior Jennifer Vonk, Todd Shackelford, 2022-04-01 This encyclopedia, representing one of the most multi-disciplinary areas of research, is a comprehensive examination of the key areas in animal cognition and behavior. It will serve as a complementary resource to the handbooks and journals that have emerged in the last decade on this topic, and will be a useful resource for student and researcher alike. With comprehensive coverage of this field, key concepts will be explored. These include social cognition, prey and predator detection, habitat selection, mating and parenting, development, genetics, physiology, memory, learning and perception. Attention is also given to animal-human co-evolution and interaction, and animal welfare. All entries are under the purview of acknowledged experts in the field. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Stock-market Psychology Karl Erik W‹rneryd, 2001-01-01 'Stock-Market Psychology gives an excellent overview of the state-of-the-art literature on this subject in the fields of economics, psychology and finance. . . a comprehensive overview of the behavior of investors in the stock market. As such, this book is valuable for the classroom. . . Stock-Market Psychology provides researchers with numerous ideas for future research and readers with useful and fun tips without taking away our hopes of ever becoming rich from investing in stocks. What more is there to ask from a book?' - Joost M.E. Pennings, Journal of Economic Psychology 'George Goodman (Adam Smith) once wrote, you can find out who you are by investing in the stock market, but it will be an expensive lesson. It is far smarter and cheaper to read Wärneryd's book instead. At a time when global stock markets are driven by emotions and passions, and are highly volatile, Chapter Six will tell you why, far better than a hundred analysts' reports.' - Shlomo Maital, TIM-Technion Institute of Management and the Samuel Neaman Institute for Advanced Studies in Science and Technology, Israel The rationale behind how people value and trade stocks is of unparalleled interest to governments, companies and other participants in stock markets. The book focuses on the way in which investors process information and form expectations about future gains. It argues that humans fall short of the perfect information processing required by theory, and that their expectations are based on more than just future company earnings. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Heuristics and Biases Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman, 2002-07-08 This book, first published in 2002, compiles psychologists' best attempts to answer important questions about intuitive judgment. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Criminal & Behavioral Profiling Curt R. Bartol, Anne M. Bartol, 2012-08-29 'Criminal & Behavioral Profiling, ' written by well-established authors Curt and Anne Bartol, presents a realistic and empirically based look at the theory, research, and practice of modern criminal profiling, or, as it's more professionally termed, behavioral analysis or behavioral investigative analysis. Designed for use in a variety of criminal justice and psychology courses, the book delves into the process of identifying distinctive behavioral tendencies, geographical locations, demographic, and biographical descriptors of offenders, and personality traits, based on characteristics of the crime. Timely literature and case studies from the rapidly growing international research in criminal profiling help students understand the best practices, major pitfalls, and psychological concepts that are key to this process.--Back cover. |
| base rate neglect psychology: Assessing Mathematical Proficiency Alan H. Schoenfeld, 2007-05-21 Testing matters! It can determine kids' and schools' futures. In a conference at the Mathematical Sciences Research Institute, mathematicians, maths education researchers, teachers, test developers, and policymakers gathered to work through critical issues related to mathematics assessment. They examined: the challenges of assessing student learning in ways that support instructional improvement; ethical issues related to assessment, including the impact of testing on urban and high-poverty schools; the different (and sometimes conflicting) needs of the different groups; and different frameworks, tools, and methods for assessment, comparing the kinds of information they offer about students' mathematical proficiency. This volume presents the results of the discussions. It highlights the kinds of information that different assessments can offer, including many examples of some of the best mathematics assessments worldwide. A special feature is an interview with a student about his knowledge of fractions and a demonstration of what interviews (versus standardized tests) can reveal. |
BASE Definition & Meaning - Merriam-Webster
The meaning of BASE is the bottom of something considered as its support : foundation. How to use base in a sentence. Synonym Discussion of Base.
BASE (Bielefeld Academic Search Engine): Basic Search
More than 400 mio. scientific documents from more than 11.000 content providers. BASE is one of the world's most voluminous search engines for academic web resources.
Base Definition & Meaning | Britannica Dictionary
BASE meaning: 1 : the bottom or lowest part of something the part on which something rests or is supported usually singular often used figuratively; 2 : something (such as a group of people or …
BASE definition in American English | Collins English Dictionary
A base is a system of counting and expressing numbers. The decimal system uses base 10, and the binary system uses base 2.
BASE | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
BASE definition: 1. the bottom part of an object, on which it rests, or the lowest part of something: 2. the main…. Learn more.
Base - definition of base by The Free Dictionary
The lowest or bottom part: the base of a cliff; the base of a lamp. 2. Biology. a. The part of a plant or animal organ that is nearest to its point of attachment. b. The point of attachment of such an …
BASE | English meaning - Cambridge Essential American
BASE definition: 1. the bottom part of something: 2. the main place where a person lives or works, or from where he…. Learn more.
Base Definition & Meaning - YourDictionary
Base definition: The lowest or bottom part.
Base | Definition, Examples, & Facts | Britannica
Base, in chemistry, any substance that in water solution is slippery to the touch, tastes bitter, changes the color of indicators (e.g., turns red litmus paper blue), reacts with acids to form …
base noun - Definition, pictures, pronunciation and usage notes ...
Definition of base noun in Oxford Advanced American Dictionary. Meaning, pronunciation, picture, example sentences, grammar, usage notes, synonyms and more.
BASE Definition & Meaning - Merriam-Webster
The meaning of BASE is the bottom of something considered as its support : foundation. How to use base in a …
BASE (Bielefeld Academic Search Engine): Basic Search
More than 400 mio. scientific documents from more than 11.000 content providers. BASE is one of the …
Base Definition & Meaning | Britannica Dictionary
BASE meaning: 1 : the bottom or lowest part of something the part on which something rests or is supported …
BASE definition in American English | Collins English Dicti…
A base is a system of counting and expressing numbers. The decimal system uses base 10, and the binary …
BASE | English meaning - Cambridge Dictionary
BASE definition: 1. the bottom part of an object, on which it rests, or the lowest part of something: 2. the …
