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| gambler's fallacy psychology: Many Faces of the Gambler's Fallacy Ruma Falk, R. Nickerson, 2016 The series of heads and tails obtained when tossing a fair coin exemplifies a random sequence. Randomness defies a strict definition, yet it is widely used in daily and scientific discourse. When perceiving or producing randomness, people err by exaggeratedly expecting a change after a few identical symbols. This is the gambler's fallacy (GF). Diverse real manifestations of GF, in casino or lottery decisions, expressions in fiction and art, and uses in deciphering codes, are all described, interwoven with stories and anecdotes. The roots of GF are presumably ascribed to one's inability to forget or ignore previous stimuli in a sequence. Students, not only of psychology, and other inquisitive readers may find the GF issue challenging. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: What's Luck Got to Do with It? Joseph Mazur, 2010-05-17 The hazards of feeling lucky in gambling Why do so many gamblers risk it all when they know the odds of winning are against them? Why do they believe dice are hot in a winning streak? Why do we expect heads on a coin toss after several flips have turned up tails? What's Luck Got to Do with It? takes a lively and eye-opening look at the mathematics, history, and psychology of gambling to reveal the most widely held misconceptions about luck. It exposes the hazards of feeling lucky, and uses the mathematics of predictable outcomes to show when our chances of winning are actually good. Mathematician Joseph Mazur traces the history of gambling from the earliest known archaeological evidence of dice playing among Neolithic peoples to the first systematic mathematical studies of games of chance during the Renaissance, from government-administered lotteries to the glittering seductions of grand casinos, and on to the global economic crisis brought on by financiers' trillion-dollar bets. Using plenty of engaging anecdotes, Mazur explains the mathematics behind gambling—including the laws of probability, statistics, betting against expectations, and the law of large numbers—and describes the psychological and emotional factors that entice people to put their faith in winning that ever-elusive jackpot despite its mathematical improbability. As entertaining as it is informative, What's Luck Got to Do with It? demonstrates the pervasive nature of our belief in luck and the deceptive psychology of winning and losing. Some images inside the book are unavailable due to digital copyright restrictions. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Rationality and Social Responsibility Joachim I. Krueger, 2008-04-09 The breadth of topics reflects Dawes's wide-ranging impact on psychological theory and empirical practice. The two themes of rationality and social responsibility feature heavily. The book serves as an overview of psychological science development in its struggle to reconcile what is true with what is good. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Judgment and Decision Making David Hardman, 2009-02-09 Judgment and Decision Making is a refreshingly accessible text that explores the wide variety of ways people make judgments. An accessible examination of the wide variety of ways people make judgments Features up-to-date theoretical coverage, including perspectives from evolutionary psychology and neuroscience Covers dynamic decision making, everyday decision making, individual differences, group decision making, and the nature of mind and brain in relation to judgment and decision making Illustrates key concepts with boxed case studies and cartoons |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Logically Fallacious Bo Bennett, 2012-02-19 This book is a crash course in effective reasoning, meant to catapult you into a world where you start to see things how they really are, not how you think they are. The focus of this book is on logical fallacies, which loosely defined, are simply errors in reasoning. With the reading of each page, you can make significant improvements in the way you reason and make decisions. Logically Fallacious is one of the most comprehensive collections of logical fallacies with all original examples and easy to understand descriptions, perfect for educators, debaters, or anyone who wants to improve his or her reasoning skills. Expose an irrational belief, keep a person rational for a day. Expose irrational thinking, keep a person rational for a lifetime. - Bo Bennett This 2021 Edition includes dozens of more logical fallacies with many updated examples. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Judgment Under Uncertainty Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic, Amos Tversky, 1982-04-30 Thirty-five chapters describe various judgmental heuristics and the biases they produce, not only in laboratory experiments, but in important social, medical, and political situations as well. Most review multiple studies or entire subareas rather than describing single experimental studies. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Paradoxes of Gambling Behaviour Willem A. Wagenaar, 2016-10-14 Why does a large proportion of the population engage in some form of gambling, although they know they are most likely to lose, and that the gambling industry makes huge profits? Do gamblers simply accept their losses as fate, or do they believe that they will be able to overcome the negative odds in some miraculous way? The paradox is complicated by the fact that those habitual gamblers who are most aware that systematic losses cannot be avoided, are the least likely to stop gambling. Detailed analyses of actual gambling behaviour have shown gamblers to be victims of a variety of cognitive illusions, which lead them to believe that the general statistical rules of determining the probability of loss do not apply to them as individuals. The designers of gambling games cleverly exploit these illusions in order to promote a false perception of the situation. Much of the earlier interest in gambling behaviour has been centred on the traditional theories of human decision-making, where decisions are portrayed as choices among bets. This led to a tradition of studying decision-making in experiments on betting. In this title, originally published in 1988, the author argues that betting behaviour should not be used as a typical example of human decision-making upon which a general psychological theory could be founded, and that these traditional views can in no way account for the gambling behaviour reported in this book. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Evidence-Based Treatments for Problem Gambling Cameron McIntosh, Katy O'Neill, 2017-08-21 This international survey addresses gaps in the knowledge base on problem gambling, emphasizing evidence-based best practices for working with this diverse and notably resistant client population. A detailed introduction offers current findings on behavioral, affective, and neurological manifestations of disordered gambling, with prevalent types of resultant psychological, financial, and social harm. The book’s conceptual discussion examines clinical and sub-clinical presentations as well as the complex interplay of psychological and social factors that create barriers to seeking help. And on the practical side, up-to-date chapters detail widely-used and newer treatment options for compulsive gambling with the best chances of reducing treatment non-compliance and post-treatment relapses, including: · Psychoeducation. · Motivational interviewing. · Cognitive behavioral therapy. · Metacognitive and mindfulness approaches. · Acceptance and Commitment Therapy. · Dialectical Behavior Therapy. · Schema therapy. · Pharmacology. · Relapse Prevention. Evidence-Based Treatments for Problem Gambling is a ready source of insights, data, and strategies for counselors working in problem gambling treatment centers, and for psychologists and counselors operating in public or private practice who see individuals with problem gambling as a primary or comorbid presentation. Researchers, lecturers, and treatment clinic managers will find this presentation both informative and immediately useful. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Chance, Logic And Intuition: An Introduction To The Counter-intuitive Logic Of Chance Steven Tijms, 2021-02-18 Chance rules our daily lives in many different ways. From the outcomes of the lottery to the outcomes of medical tests, from the basketball court to the court of law. The ways of chance are capricious. Bizarre things happen all the time. Nevertheless, chance has a logic of its own. It obeys the rules of probability. But if you open a standard book on probability, you may very well feel far removed from everyday life. Abstract formulas and mathematical symbols stare back at you with almost every turn of the page.This book introduces you to the logic of chance without the use of mathematical formulas or symbols. In Part One, you will meet the fascinating pioneers of the mathematics of probability, including Galileo Galilei and Blaise Pascal. Their stories will introduce you, step by step, to the basics of probability. In Part Two, various examples in all areas of daily life will show you how chance defies our expectations time and again. But armed with the basic rules of probability and a good dose of inventiveness, you will be able to unravel the counter-intuitive logic of chance. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: The Biggest Bluff Maria Konnikova, 2021-06-08 A New York Times bestseller • A New York Times Notable Book “The tale of how Konnikova followed a story about poker players and wound up becoming a story herself will have you riveted, first as you learn about her big winnings, and then as she conveys the lessons she learned both about human nature and herself.” —The Washington Post It's true that Maria Konnikova had never actually played poker before and didn't even know the rules when she approached Erik Seidel, Poker Hall of Fame inductee and winner of tens of millions of dollars in earnings, and convinced him to be her mentor. But she knew her man: a famously thoughtful and broad-minded player, he was intrigued by her pitch that she wasn't interested in making money so much as learning about life. She had faced a stretch of personal bad luck, and her reflections on the role of chance had led her to a giant of game theory, who pointed her to poker as the ultimate master class in learning to distinguish between what can be controlled and what can't. And she certainly brought something to the table, including a Ph.D. in psychology and an acclaimed and growing body of work on human behavior and how to hack it. So Seidel was in, and soon she was down the rabbit hole with him, into the wild, fiercely competitive, overwhelmingly masculine world of high-stakes Texas Hold'em, their initial end point the following year's World Series of Poker. But then something extraordinary happened. Under Seidel's guidance, Konnikova did have many epiphanies about life that derived from her new pursuit, including how to better read, not just her opponents but far more importantly herself; how to identify what tilted her into an emotional state that got in the way of good decisions; and how to get to a place where she could accept luck for what it was, and what it wasn't. But she also began to win. And win. In a little over a year, she began making earnest money from tournaments, ultimately totaling hundreds of thousands of dollars. She won a major title, got a sponsor, and got used to being on television, and to headlines like How one writer's book deal turned her into a professional poker player. She even learned to like Las Vegas. But in the end, Maria Konnikova is a writer and student of human behavior, and ultimately the point was to render her incredible journey into a container for its invaluable lessons. The biggest bluff of all, she learned, is that skill is enough. Bad cards will come our way, but keeping our focus on how we play them and not on the outcome will keep us moving through many a dark patch, until the luck once again breaks our way. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Social Psychology Daniel W. Barrett, 2015-12-19 Employing a lively and accessible writing style, author Daniel W. Barrett integrates up-to-date coverage of social psychology’s core theories, concepts, and research with a discussion of emerging developments in the field—including social neuroscience and the social psychology of happiness, religion, and sustainability. Social Psychology: Core Concepts and Emerging Trends presents engaging examples, Applying Social Psychology sections, and a wealth of pedagogical features to help readers cultivate a deep understanding of the causes of social behavior. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: 50 Psychology Ideas You Really Need to Know Adrian Furnham, 2013-10-01 How different are men and women's brains? Does altruism really exist? Are our minds blank slates at birth? And do dreams reveal our unconscious desires? If you have you ever grappled with these concepts, or tried your hand as an amateur psychologist, 50 Psychology Ideas You Really Need to Know could be just the book for you. Not only providing the answers to these questions and many more, this series of engaging and accessible essays explores each of the central concepts, as well as the arguments of key thinkers. Author Adrian Furnham offers expert and concise introductions to emotional behavior, cognition, mentalconditions--from stress to schizophrenia--rationality and personality development, amongst many others. This is a fascinating introduction to psychology for anyone interested in understanding the human mind. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: The Great Mental Models, Volume 1 Shane Parrish, Rhiannon Beaubien, 2024-10-15 Discover the essential thinking tools you’ve been missing with The Great Mental Models series by Shane Parrish, New York Times bestselling author and the mind behind the acclaimed Farnam Street blog and “The Knowledge Project” podcast. This first book in the series is your guide to learning the crucial thinking tools nobody ever taught you. Time and time again, great thinkers such as Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett have credited their success to mental models–representations of how something works that can scale onto other fields. Mastering a small number of mental models enables you to rapidly grasp new information, identify patterns others miss, and avoid the common mistakes that hold people back. The Great Mental Models: Volume 1, General Thinking Concepts shows you how making a few tiny changes in the way you think can deliver big results. Drawing on examples from history, business, art, and science, this book details nine of the most versatile, all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making and productivity. This book will teach you how to: Avoid blind spots when looking at problems. Find non-obvious solutions. Anticipate and achieve desired outcomes. Play to your strengths, avoid your weaknesses, … and more. The Great Mental Models series demystifies once elusive concepts and illuminates rich knowledge that traditional education overlooks. This series is the most comprehensive and accessible guide on using mental models to better understand our world, solve problems, and gain an advantage. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Selling Hope Charles T. Clotfelter, Philip J. Cook, 1991 With its huge jackpots and heartwarming rags-to-riches stories, the lottery has become the hope and dream of millions of Americans--and the fastest-growing source of state revenue. Despite its popularity, however, there remains much controversy over whether this is an appropriate business for state government and, if so, how this business should be conducted. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Bad Arguments Robert Arp, Steven Barbone, Michael Bruce, 2018-10-29 A timely and accessible guide to 100 of the most infamous logical fallacies in Western philosophy, helping readers avoid and detect false assumptions and faulty reasoning You’ll love this book or you’ll hate it. So, you’re either with us or against us. And if you’re against us then you hate books. No true intellectual would hate this book. Ever decide to avoid a restaurant because of one bad meal? Choose a product because a celebrity endorsed it? Or ignore what a politician says because she’s not a member of your party? For as long as people have been discussing, conversing, persuading, advocating, proselytizing, pontificating, or otherwise stating their case, their arguments have been vulnerable to false assumptions and faulty reasoning. Drawing upon a long history of logical falsehoods and philosophical flubs, Bad Arguments demonstrates how misguided arguments come to be, and what we can do to detect them in the rhetoric of others and avoid using them ourselves. Fallacies—or conclusions that don’t follow from their premise—are at the root of most bad arguments, but it can be easy to stumble into a fallacy without realizing it. In this clear and concise guide to good arguments gone bad, Robert Arp, Steven Barbone, and Michael Bruce take readers through 100 of the most infamous fallacies in Western philosophy, identifying the most common missteps, pitfalls, and dead-ends of arguments gone awry. Whether an instance of sunk costs, is ought, affirming the consequent, moving the goal post, begging the question, or the ever-popular slippery slope, each fallacy engages with examples drawn from contemporary politics, economics, media, and popular culture. Further diagrams and tables supplement entries and contextualize common errors in logical reasoning. At a time in our world when it is crucial to be able to identify and challenge rhetorical half-truths, this bookhelps readers to better understand flawed argumentation and develop logical literacy. Unrivaled in its breadth of coverage and a worthy companion to its sister volume Just the Arguments (2011), Bad Arguments is an essential tool for undergraduate students and general readers looking to hone their critical thinking and rhetorical skills. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: The Psychology of Conspiracy Theories Jan-Willem Prooijen, 2018-04-09 Who believes in conspiracy theories, and why are some people more susceptible to them than others? What are the consequences of such beliefs? Has a conspiracy theory ever turned out to be true? The Psychology of Conspiracy Theories debunks the myth that conspiracy theories are a modern phenomenon, exploring their broad social contexts, from politics to the workplace. The book explains why some people are more susceptible to these beliefs than others and how they are produced by recognizable and predictable psychological processes. Featuring examples such as the 9/11 terrorist attacks and climate change, The Psychology of Conspiracy Theories shows us that while such beliefs are not always irrational and are not a pathological trait, they can be harmful to individuals and society. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Categories of Human Learning Arthur W. Melton, 2014-05-12 Categories of Human Learning covers the papers presented at the Symposium on the Psychology of Human Learning, held at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor on January 31 and February 1, 1962. The book focuses on the different classifications of human learning. The selection first offers information on classical and operant conditioning and the categories of learning and the problem of definition. Discussions focus on classical and instrumental conditioning and the nature of reinforcement; comparability of the forms of human learning; conditioning experiments with human subjects; and subclasses of classical and instrumental conditioning. The text then takes a look at the representativeness of rote verbal learning and centrality of verbal learning. The publication ponders on probability learning, evaluation of stimulus sampling theory, and short-term memory and incidental learning. Topics include short-term retention, stimulus variation experiments, reinforcement schedules and mean response, systematic interpretations, and methodological approaches. The book then examines the behavioral effects of instruction to learning, verbalizations and concepts, and the generality of research on transfer functions. The selection is highly recommended for psychologists and educators wanting to conduct studies on the categories of human learning. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Risk Dan Gardner, 2009-02-24 In the tradition of Malcolm Gladwell, Gardner explores a new way of thinking about the decisions we make. We are the safest and healthiest human beings who ever lived, and yet irrational fear is growing, with deadly consequences — such as the 1,595 Americans killed when they made the mistake of switching from planes to cars after September 11. In part, this irrationality is caused by those — politicians, activists, and the media — who promote fear for their own gain. Culture also matters. But a more fundamental cause is human psychology. Working with risk science pioneer Paul Slovic, author Dan Gardner sets out to explain in a compulsively readable fashion just what that statement above means as to how we make decisions and run our lives. We learn that the brain has not one but two systems to analyze risk. One is primitive, unconscious, and intuitive. The other is conscious and rational. The two systems often agree, but occasionally they come to very different conclusions. When that happens, we can find ourselves worrying about what the statistics tell us is a trivial threat — terrorism, child abduction, cancer caused by chemical pollution — or shrugging off serious risks like obesity and smoking. Gladwell told us about “the black box” of our brains; Gardner takes us inside, helping us to understand how to deconstruct the information we’re bombarded with and respond more logically and adaptively to our world. Risk is cutting-edge reading. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Statistical Methods for Psychology David C. Howell, 2013 STATISTICAL METHODS FOR PSYCHOLOGY, 8E, International Edition surveys the statistical techniques commonly used in the behavioral and social sciences, particularly psychology and education. To help students gain a better understanding of the specific statistical hypothesis tests that are covered throughout the text, author David Howell emphasizes conceptual understanding. This Eighth Edition continues to focus students on two key themes that are the cornerstones of this book's success: the importance of looking at the data before beginning a hypothesis test, and the importance of knowing the relationship between the statistical test in use and the theoretical questions being asked by the experiment. New and expanded topics—reflecting the evolving realm of statistical methods—include effect size, meta-analysis, and treatment of missing data. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Close Relationships Patricia Noller, Judith A. Feeney, 2013-05-13 Close Relationships: Functions, Forms and Processes provides an overview of current theory and research in the area of close relationships, written by internationally renowned scholars whose work is at the cutting edge of research in the field. The volume consists of three sections: introductory issues, types of relationships, and relationship processes. In the first section, there is an exploration of the functions and benefits of close relationships, the diversity of methodologies used to study them, and the changing social context in which close relationships are embedded. A second section examines the various types of close relationships, including family bonds and friendships. The third section focuses on key relationship processes, including attachment, intimacy, sexuality, and conflict. This book is designed to be an essential resource for senior undergraduate and postgraduate students, researchers, and practitioners, and will be suitable as a resource in advanced courses dealing with the social psychology of close relationships. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Belief, Truth and Knowledge D. M. Armstrong, 1973-02-08 A wide-ranging study of the central concepts in epistemology - belief, truth and knowledge. Professor Armstrong offers a dispositional account of general beliefs and of knowledge of general propositions. Belief about particular matters of fact are described as structures in the mind of the believer which represent or 'map' reality, while general beliefs are dispositions to extend the 'map' or introduce casual relations between portions of the map according to general rules. 'Knowledge' denotes the reliability of such beliefs as representations of reality. Within this framework Professor Armstrong offers a distinctive account of many of the main questions in general epistemology - the relations between beliefs and language, the notions of proposition, concept and idea, the analysis of truth, the varieties of knowledge, and the way in which beleifs and knowledge are supported by reasons. The book as a whole if offered as a contribution to a naturalistic account of man. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: The House Advantage Jeffrey Ma, 2012-02-14 As part of the notorious MIT Team depicted in Ben Mezrich's now classic Bringing Down the House, Jeff Ma used math and statistics to master the game of blackjack and reap handsome rewards at casinos. Years later, Ma has inspired not only a bestselling novel and hit movie, but has also started three different companies—the latest of which, Citizen Sports, is an innovative marriage of sports, betting, and digital technology—and launched a successful corporate speaking career. The House Advantage reveals Ma's cutting-edge mathematical insights into the world of statistics and makes them applicable to a wide business audience. He argues that numbers are the key to analyzing nearly everything in the world of business, from how to spot and profit from global market inefficiencies to having multiple backup plans in anticipation of every probability. Ma's stories and business lessons are as intriguing as they are universally applicable. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: The Psychology of Gambling Edmund Bergler, 1970 |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Fundamentals of Modern Statistical Methods Rand R. Wilcox, 2010-03-18 Conventional statistical methods have a very serious flaw. They routinely miss differences among groups or associations among variables that are detected by more modern techniques, even under very small departures from normality. Hundreds of journal articles have described the reasons standard techniques can be unsatisfactory, but simple, intuitive explanations are generally unavailable. Situations arise where even highly nonsignificant results become significant when analyzed with more modern methods. Without assuming the reader has any prior training in statistics, Part I of this book describes basic statistical principles from a point of view that makes their shortcomings intuitive and easy to understand. The emphasis is on verbal and graphical descriptions of concepts. Part II describes modern methods that address the problems covered in Part I. Using data from actual studies, many examples are included to illustrate the practical problems with conventional procedures and how more modern methods can make a substantial difference in the conclusions reached in many areas of statistical research. The second edition of this book includes a number of advances and insights that have occurred since the first edition appeared. Included are new results relevant to medians, regression, measures of association, strategies for comparing dependent groups, methods for dealing with heteroscedasticity, and measures of effect size. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Heuristics and Biases Thomas Gilovich, Dale Griffin, Daniel Kahneman, 2002-07-08 This book, first published in 2002, compiles psychologists' best attempts to answer important questions about intuitive judgment. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Psychology of Gambling Andrea E. Cavanna, Kathryn S. Baker, Nelson C. Edwards, 2012 Generally considered a social and/or recreational activity, in some cases gambling can become an addictive behavior. Pathological gambling is classified by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) as an impulse control disorder, characterized by failure to resist the impulse to gamble despite severe and devastating personal, family, or vocational consequences. The lifetime prevalence of pathological gambling in the adult population of North America has been estimated to be over 1%. Pathological gambling can also be associated with significantly specific behavioral problems and neuropsychiatric conditions, mainly affecting dopaminergic reward pathways. This book provides a 360-degree overview on the current psychological models for gambling behaviors, informed by both neurobiological and clinical observations. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Problem and Pathological Gambling James P Whelan, Andrew W Meyers, Timothy A Steenbergh, 2007-01-01 Over the past 30 years there has been a dramatic increase in the availability of convenient and legal gambling opportunities. Accompanying this proliferation of gambling is a growing understanding that between 5% and 9% of adults experience significant to severe problems due to their gambling activities. These problems have become a real health concern, with substantial costs to individuals, families, and communities. The objective of this book is to provide the clinician – or graduate student – with essential information about problem and pathological gambling. After placing this behavioral addiction and its co-occurring difficulties in perspective, by describing its proliferation, the associated costs, and diagnostic criteria and definitions, the authors present detailed information on a strategy to assess and treat gambling problems in an outpatient setting. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Future Babble Dan Gardner, 2010-10-12 In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts. In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: The Age of Anomaly Andrei Polgar, 2018-05-18 Something is seriously wrong with the economy, the financial system and ultimately, our way of life. You're probably reading this because, well, you feel the same way. Perhaps you're worried about one specific scenario (the death of the banking system, hyperinflation or something else) but then again, maybe you're not able to identify specific threats. Instead, you just feel something is wrong. You feel it deep down inside and it haunts you. Rightfully so, in my opinion! The Age of Anomaly is here to provide much-needed clarity. My name is Andrei Polgar but a lot of you might know me as the One Minute Economics guy on YouTube and I've never been an economist who desperately wants to sound intelligent. Instead, through my work, I've had one goal and one goal only: making economics easy to understand, something traditional education has failed at remarkably. As time passes, my work is featured in more and more universities all over the world. Students love it, people who already graduated feel the same way and even those who aren't necessarily interested in economics become fascinated by this often misunderstood but amazing field. Why do people like what I do? For one simple reason: because it works. Through The Age of Anomaly, I've made it clear that understanding financial calamities and being prepared doesn't have to involve rocket science. Anyone can do it and frankly, everyone should do it. I've provided a from A to Z perspective by: 1) Analyzing quite a few hand-picked economic calamities of the past, from the Tulip Mania to the Great Depression, the Great Recession and even case studies pretty much nobody heard of such as the Short Domain Mania of 2015-2016 2) Drawing parallels and finding common denominators so as to provide tips that help readers become better and better at spotting financial storms 3) Explaining that becoming better at spotting financial storms is just not enough. Even I may very well end up being caught off-guard by the next crash and as such, it makes sense to dedicate just at much energy to becoming more resilient in general so as to better withstand anything life throws your way By becoming good at spotting financial storms as well as resilient, you'll be multiple orders of magnitude (and I consider even this the understatement of the century) better off than the average individual, who blissfully chooses to live in a bubble of ignorance! |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Encyclopedia of Social Psychology Roy F. Baumeister, Kathleen D. Vohs, 2007-08-29 The set offers clear descriptions of commonly used and sometimes misunderstood terms, e.g., cultural differences, authoritarian personality, and neuroticism. The field has expanded since publication of The Blackwell Encyclopedia of Social Psychology, ed. by A. Manstead and M. Hewstone et al. (CH, Jan ′96, 33-2457), and this work is a valuable response to that. Summing Up: Recommended. All levels. —CHOICE Not long ago, social psychology was a small field consisting of creative, energetic researchers bent on trying to study a few vexing problems in normal adult human behavior with rigorous scientific methods. In a few short decades, the field has blossomed into a major intellectual force, with thousands of researchers worldwide exploring a stunningly diverse set of fascinating phenomena with an impressive arsenal of research methods and ever more carefully honed theories. The Encyclopedia of Social Psychology is designed as a road map to this rapidly growing and important field and provides individuals with a simple, clear, jargon-free introduction. These two volumes include more than 600 entries chosen by a diverse team of experts to comprise an exhaustive list of the most important concepts. Entries provide brief, clear, and readable explanations to the vast number of ideas and concepts that make up the intellectual and scientific content in the area of social psychology. Key Features Provides background to each concept, explains what researchers are now doing with it, and discusses where it stands in relation to other concepts in the field Translates jargon into plain, clear, everyday language rather than speaking in the secret language of the discipline Offers contributions from prominent, well-respected researchers extending over the many subfields of social psychology that collectively have a truly amazing span of expertise Key Themes Action Control Antisocial Behaviors Attitude Culture Emotions Evolution Groups Health History Influence Interpersonal Relationships Judgment and Decision Making Methods Personality Prejudice Problem Behaviors Prosocial Behaviors Self Social Cognition Subdisciplines The Encyclopedia of Social Psychology is the first resource to present students, researchers, scholars, and practitioners with state-of-the-art research and ready-to-use facts from this fascinating field. It is a must have resource for all academic libraries. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Readings in Formal Epistemology Horacio Arló-Costa, Vincent F. Hendricks, Johan van Benthem, 2016-06-15 This volume presents 38 classic texts in formal epistemology, and strengthens the ties between research into this area of philosophy and its neighbouring intellectual disciplines. The editors provide introductions to five subsections: Bayesian Epistemology, Belief Change, Decision Theory, Interactive Epistemology and Epistemic Logic. 'Formal epistemology' is a term coined in the late 1990s for a new constellation of interests in philosophy, the origins of which are found in earlier works of epistemologists, philosophers of science and logicians. It addresses a growing agenda of problems concerning knowledge, belief, certainty, rationality, deliberation, decision, strategy, action and agent interaction – and it does so using methods from logic, probability, computability, decision and game theory. The volume also includes a thorough index and suggestions for further reading, and thus offers a complete teaching and research package for students as well as research scholars of formal epistemology, philosophy, logic, computer science, theoretical economics and cognitive psychology. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Aha! Aha! Insight Martin Gardner, 1978 Contains puzzles that first baffle and then delight problem solving addicts. Grew out of a collaboration between Bob Tappay and Martin Gardner to enliven the learning of mathematics. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Exploring Probability in School Graham A. Jones, 2006-03-30 Exploring Probability in School provides a new perspective into research on the teaching and learning of probability. It creates this perspective by recognizing and analysing the special challenges faced by teachers and learners in contemporary classrooms where probability has recently become a mainstream part of the curriculum from early childhood through high school. The authors of the book discuss the nature of probability, look at the meaning of probabilistic literacy, and examine student access to powerful ideas in probability during the elementary, middle, and high school years. Moreover, they assemble and analyse research-based pedagogical knowledge for teachers that can enhance the learning of probability throughout these school years. With the book’s rich application of probability research to classroom practice, it will not only be essential reading for researchers and graduate students involved in probability education; it will also capture the interest of educational policy makers, curriculum personnel, teacher educators, and teachers. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Handbook of Psychology, Clinical Psychology George Stricker, Thomas A. Widiger, 2003-01-07 Includes established theories and cutting-edge developments. Presents the work of an international group of experts. Presents the nature, origin, implications, an future course of major unresolved issues in the area. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: The Art of Statistics David Spiegelhalter, 2019-09-03 In this important and comprehensive guide to statistical thinking (New Yorker), discover how data literacy is changing the world and gives you a better understanding of life’s biggest problems. Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence -- and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders. In The Art of Statistics, world-renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows readers how to derive knowledge from raw data by focusing on the concepts and connections behind the math. Drawing on real world examples to introduce complex issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether a notorious serial killer could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. The Art of Statistics not only shows us how mathematicians have used statistical science to solve these problems -- it teaches us how we too can think like statisticians. We learn how to clarify our questions, assumptions, and expectations when approaching a problem, and -- perhaps even more importantly -- we learn how to responsibly interpret the answers we receive. Combining the incomparable insight of an expert with the playful enthusiasm of an aficionado, The Art of Statistics is the definitive guide to stats that every modern person needs. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Do Lunch Or be Lunch Howard H. Stevenson, Jeffrey Cruikshank, Jeffrey L. Cruikshank, Mihnea C. Moldoveanu, 1998 Explains how to refine predictive skills, make decisions, measure risk, understand conflict, and improve human interactions |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Cognitive Illusions Rüdiger F Pohl, 2012-12-06 Cognitive Illusions investigates a wide range of fascinating psychological effects in the way we think, judge and remember in our everyday lives. At the beginning of each chapter, leading researchers in the field introduce the background to phenomena such as illusions of control, overconfidence and hindsight bias. This is followed by an explanation of the experimental context in which these illusions can be investigated and a theoretical discussion drawing conclusions about the wider implications of these fallacy and bias effects. Written with researchers and instructors in mind, this tightly edited, reader-friendly text provides both an overview of research in the area and many lively pedagogic features such as chapter summaries, further reading lists and suggestions for classroom demonstrations. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: The Psychological Science of Money Erik Bijleveld, Henk Aarts, 2014-07-10 Money. The root of all evil? Arguably. Essential to our lives? Certainly. A main driver of human thought, emotion, and action? Absolutely--and psychology and its related fields are getting closer to understanding its complex role in human behavior and in society. The Psychological Science of Money brings together classic and current findings on the myriad ways money affects brain, mind, and behavior to satisfy not only our needs for material gain, but also for autonomy and self-worth. Leading experts trace the links between early concepts of value and modern symbolic meanings of wealth, in addition to identifying the areas of the human brain that together act as its financial center. This cross-disciplinary analysis helps clarify the neuroscience behind pathological gambling, the critical role of time in financial decisions, and the impact of money on diverse personal activities and interpersonal relationships. Included in the coverage: Materiality, symbol, and complexity in the anthropology of money. The (relative and absolute) subjective value of money. Conscious and unconscious influences of money: two sides of the same coin? A life-course approach to dealing with monetary gains and losses Motivation and cognitive control: beyond monetary incentives. An integrative perspective on the science of getting paid. The psychological science of spending. The unique role of money in society makes The Psychological Science of Money a singularly fascinating resource with a wide audience among social psychologists, industrial and organizational psychologists, economists, sociologists, anthropologists, and public policymakers. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: Entertaining Mathematical Puzzles Martin Gardner, 1986-10 Playing with mathematical riddles can be an intriguing and fun-filled pastime — as popular science writer Martin Gardner proves in this entertaining collection. Puzzlists need only an elementary knowledge of math and a will to resist looking up the answer before trying to solve a problem. Written in a light and witty style, Entertaining Mathematical Puzzles is a mixture of old and new riddles, grouped into sections that cover a variety of mathematical topics: money, speed, plane and solid geometry, probability, topology, tricky puzzles, and more. The probability section, for example, points out that everything we do, everything that happens around us, obeys the laws of probability; geometry puzzles test our ability to think pictorially and often, in more than one dimension; while topology, among the youngest and rowdiest branches of modern geometry, offers a glimpse into a strange dimension where properties remain unchanged, no matter how a figure is twisted, stretched, or compressed. Clear and concise comments at the beginning of each section explain the nature and importance of the math needed to solve each puzzle. A carefully explained solution follows each problem. In many cases, all that is needed to solve a puzzle is the ability to think logically and clearly, to be on the alert for surprising, off-beat angles...that strange hidden factor that everyone else had overlooked. Fully illustrated, this engaging collection will appeal to parents and children, amateur mathematicians, scientists, and students alike, and may, as the author writes, make the reader want to study the subject in earnest and explains some of the inviting paths that wind away from the problems into lusher areas of the mathematical jungle. 65 black-and-white illustrations. |
| gambler's fallacy psychology: British Gambling Prevalence Survey 2010 Heather Wardle, 2011 This report presents results from the British Gambling Prevalence Survey (BGPS) 2010. This is the third nationally representative survey of its kind; previous studies were conducted in 2007 and 1999. The aims of the BGPS 2010 were to provide data on participation in all forms of gambling in Great Britain, the prevalence of problem gambling, attitudes to gambling and to explore a range of associations with gambling behaviour. The 2010 study is the first in this series to be conducted after the full implementation of the Gambling Act 2005. Therefore, a further objective was to, where possible, provide some comparisons pre and post implementation of the Gambling Act 2005. -- Executive summary. |
GAMBLER中文(简体)翻译：剑桥词典 - Cambridge Dictionary
gambler翻译：赌博者，赌徒。了解更多。
The Gambler (2014) - Plot - IMDb
Wahlberg stars as Jim Bennett, a lecturer reeling from the death of his beloved grandfather (George Kennedy). His all-or-nothing personality gets …
Kenny Rogers - "The Gambler" (Live) - YouTube
"The Gambler" (Live) from the forthcoming Kenny Rogers album, GREATEST HITS LIVE. "The Gambler" (Live) is available now here: …
Gamblerství – Wikipedie
Herní žetony. Gamblerství neboli gambling či patologické hráčství je chorobná závislost na hraní hazardních her.Gamblerství je považováno za …
Lyrics for The Gambler by Kenny Rogers - Songfacts
On a warm summer's eve On a train bound for nowhere I met up with the gambler We were both too tired to sleep So we took turns a-starin' Out …
GAMBLER中文(简体)翻译：剑桥词典 - Cambridge Dictionary
gambler翻译：赌博者，赌徒。了解更多。
The Gambler (2014) - Plot - IMDb
Wahlberg stars as Jim Bennett, a lecturer reeling from the death of his beloved grandfather (George Kennedy). His all-or-nothing personality gets him in debt for more than a quarter of a million …
Kenny Rogers - "The Gambler" (Live) - YouTube
"The Gambler" (Live) from the forthcoming Kenny Rogers album, GREATEST HITS LIVE. "The Gambler" (Live) is available now here: https://stem.ffm.to/thegamblerl...
Gamblerství – Wikipedie
Herní žetony. Gamblerství neboli gambling či patologické hráčství je chorobná závislost na hraní hazardních her.Gamblerství je považováno za patologickou psychickou závislost na lákavé …
Lyrics for The Gambler by Kenny Rogers - Songfacts
On a warm summer's eve On a train bound for nowhere I met up with the gambler We were both too tired to sleep So we took turns a-starin' Out the window at the darkness
Kenny Rogers - The Gambler - YouTube
Kenny Rogers - The Gambler (Official Music Video)🎶 "The Gambler" is one of the most iconic country songs of all time, performed by the legendary Kenny Roger...
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The Gambler movie review & film summary (2014) - Roger Ebert
Dec 25, 2014 · “The Gambler” should have been called “Three Supporting Characters in Search of a Lead.” A gaunt Mark Wahlberg stares out from the poster, his name is above the title, and he’s in …
The Gambler (song) - Wikipedia
Rogers recorded the song at the Jack Clement Recording Studio in Nashville, Tennessee with producer Larry Butler.Musicians who played on the song included Ray Edenton and Jimmy Capps …
Unveiling The Extraordinary Story Of ‘The Gambler,’ Made ...
Jan 18, 2024 · Impact of “The Gambler” on Sports and Popular Culture “The Gambler” had quite an impact on sports and popular culture as well, with Rogers performing the tune on The Muppet …
